"quantity"exercise:Probability Concepts

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來(lái)源: 正保會(huì)計(jì)網(wǎng)校編輯：小鞠橘桔 2020/09/28 08:55:52　字體：大小

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Questions 1:

If the probability for an event Z is 14% (i.e., P(Z) = 14%), the odds for Z are closest to:

A 、0.163.

B、 0.071.

C、 0.123.

Questions 2:

Assuming no short selling, a diversification benefit is most likely to occur when the correlations among the securities contained in the portfolio are:

A 、greater than +1.

B、 equal to +1.

C、 less than +1.

View answer resolution

【Answer to question 1】A

【analysis】

A is correct. Odds are calculated as P(Z)/[1 – P(Z)]. In this problem, 0.14/0.86 = 0.16279 ~ 0.163.

B is incorrect. It is calculated as the inverse of 14: 1/14 = 0.07143.

C is incorrect. It is calculated as P(Z)/[1 + P(Z)] =0.14/(1 + 0.14) = 0.12281

【Answer to question 2】C

【analysis】

C is correct. As long as security returns are not perfectly positively correlated, diversification benefits are possible.

A is incorrect; correlation cannot be greater than positive one.

B is incorrect; if correlations equal 1, no diversification benefit occurs.

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