The rise of the renminbi appears inexorable. The Chinese currency hits fresh record highs on a regular basis, making the appeal of the “redback” as an investment clear.

　　人民幣升值勢頭看似不可阻擋。人民幣匯率接二連三刷新歷史紀錄，使“紅幣”(redback)的投資魅力顯露無遺。

　　China’s economy is in the ascendancy, and its currency will go with it.

　　中國經(jīng)濟蒸蒸日上，人民幣自然也將水漲船高。

　　Hong Kong is where China’s currency meets international investors – permanent residents in the city can open renminbi bank accounts, and buy up to HK$20,000 ($2,565) worth every day. Appetite looks robust – renminbi as a share of Hong Kong’s retail deposit base grew from 0.1 to about 5 per cent during 2010, according to the Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank.

　　香港是人民幣與國際投資者會合之地。本地永久居民可在銀行開立人民幣賬戶，單日最多可換購價值2萬港元（合2565美元）的人民幣。人民幣在香港似乎頗為吃香：根據(jù)香港金融管理局(Monetary Authority)的數(shù)據(jù)，2010年期間，人民幣存款占香港零售存款總額的比重從0.1%上升到5%左右。金管局相當于香港的央行。

　　Because of the Chinese currency’s lack of convertibility, the main reason to hold it remains for speculation. HSBC offered a payroll facility for clients wanting to pay staff in renminbi, but so far there have been no takers.

　　由于人民幣不可兌換，港人持有人民幣仍以投機為主要目的。匯豐(HSBC)為客戶提供一項人民幣工資支付服務，但迄今沒有一家雇主響應。

　　“The average Hong Kong resident views the renminbi itself as a half-decent investment opportunity,” says Mark McCombe, chief executive of HSBC’s Hong Kong operations. “It may not be long before taxi drivers and restaurants start accepting it. But for most people – they are paid in Hong Kong dollars, they buy things with Hong Kong dollars, their lives are in Hong Kong dollars.”

　　 匯豐香港業(yè)務行政總裁馬凱博(Mark McCombe)表示：“香港普通居民把持有人民幣視作一種還算過得去的投資機會。也許不久之后，的士司機和餐廳會開始接受人民幣。但是對大多數(shù)人來說，他們拿的是港幣工資，購物用港幣，日常生活中用的都是港幣。”

　　For all the hype about the rise of the redback, those banking on even modest gains may be disappointed.

　　盡管人民幣升值說甚囂塵上，但即便是指望獲得適度回報的人士可能也會失望。

　　At the start of March, Yi Gang, deputy governor at the Chinese central bank, said the renminbi exchange rate was at its closest yet to “equilibrium”. The powerful manufacturing lobby is also worried about further appreciation, putting pressure on the government to keep the redback’s rise in first gear.

　　3月初，中國央行副行長易綱表示，人民幣匯率水平正接近有史以來的最佳“均衡”狀態(tài)。此外，強大的制造業(yè)游說軍團對人民幣進一步升值憂心忡忡，因而積極向政府施加壓力，要求把升值速度保持在最低水平。

　　Since the People’s Bank of China announced it was moving to a slightly more flexible exchange-rate regime last June, the renminbi has returned to its path of gradual appreciation. But in that time it has risen just 4.3 per cent, outperforming only a handful of currencies in the region, including the Pakistani rupee and the Vietnamese dong.

　　去年6月，中國央行宣布小幅增強人民幣匯率彈性，人民幣從此恢復漸進升值。然而，自那以來人民幣僅升值4.3%。就亞洲地區(qū)而言，其升值幅度只勝過區(qū)區(qū)幾種貨幣，包括巴基斯坦盧比和越南盾。

　　Only four currencies in Asia have moved less in any direction. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has leapt 13 per cent, the Singapore dollar 10 per cent and the Korean Won 9.5 per cent.

　　亞洲地區(qū)只有四種貨幣的漲跌幅度小于人民幣。而同期內(nèi)日元匯率飆升13%，新加坡元和韓元分別升值10%和9.5%。

　　The action in the forward market suggests continued plodding gains. Non-deliverable forwards – or NDFs – are essentially a derivatives contract pricing future values. Over the next 12 months, the market points to less than 2 per cent of further appreciation.

　　 遠期市場的動態(tài)表明，人民幣仍將緩慢升值。無本金交割遠期外匯交易（Non-deliverable Forwards，簡稱NDF）本質(zhì)上是一種對未來價值進行定價的衍生品合約。NDF市場預示，在未來12個月內(nèi)，人民幣后續(xù)升值幅度將小于2%。

　　While the more bullish forecasts point to a rise of anything up to 6 per cent, consensus is for 4.1 per cent by year end, according to a recent poll of economists by Bloomberg. Many analysts remain doubtful.

　　彭博(Bloomberg)近期對經(jīng)濟學家進行調(diào)查顯示，比較樂觀的預測是年底前最多將升值6%，但預測的共識落在4.1%水平上。但不少分析師對這樣的預測仍抱懷疑態(tài)度。

　　“Over the next year or so, investors may be disappointed. It’s not undervalued by as much as some would hope,” says Ashley Davies, senior FX strategist at Commerzbank in Singapore.

　　德國商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)駐新加坡高級外匯策略師阿什利?戴維斯(Ashley Davies)表示：“在接下來一年左右的時間里，投資者或許會感到失望。人民幣低估程度其實不像一些人所期盼的那么大。”

　　Inflation is also a factor. China’s prices surged at the end of 2010, prompting a round of monetary tightening from the central bank.

　　通脹也是一個因素。2010年底中國物價飆漲，促使中國央行啟動貨幣緊縮周期。

　　China has used a stronger currency to help damp the effects of imported inflation – principally caused by rising commodity prices. So long as China is battling inflation, there is potential for faster appreciation. But that may be a temporary phenomenon.

　　中國一直在借助人民幣升值抑制輸入型通脹。這種通脹主要是大宗商品價格不斷上漲引起的。只要中國在對抗通脹，人民幣就有加快升值的可能。但是，這也許只是一種暫時現(xiàn)象。

　　“Once China gets a grip on inflation, there could be a reduced need for appreciation,” says Albert Leung, FX strategist at Citi. “The [renminbi] is no longer as undervalued as a few years ago. It will still appreciate, but it’s not going to be exciting. Over the longer term, we’re likely to see more modest appreciation, and more two-way risk.”

　　花旗(Citi)外匯策略師Albert Leung表示：“一旦中國控制住通脹，升值的需要就可能減弱。目前人民幣低估程度已經(jīng)不像幾年前那么嚴重。它仍然會升值，但是不會達到讓人興奮的程度。從長遠來看，我們可能看到更多小幅升值，有漲有跌的風險也將更加明顯。”

　　Some analysts go even further. TJ Bond, chief Asia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch – though bullish on the currency – says the renminbi “is not significantly undervalued”, and will even become overvalued during the next few months.

　　有些分析師的觀點更激進。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)亞太區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟學家蒂莫西?杰姆斯?邦德(TJ Bond)仍然看好人民幣，但他表示，目前人民幣“并沒有嚴重低估”，在未來幾個月甚至將變?yōu)楦吖馈?

　　“On a risk/reward basis, it has exceeded any other currency in the region,” says Daniel Hui, senior FX strategist at HSBC.

　　匯豐外匯策略師許尚賢(Daniel Hui)表示：“從風險報酬比來看，人民幣已經(jīng)超出亞洲其他任何一種貨幣。”

　　One thing that might facilitate a more rapid rise of the redback is a faster opening up of the Chinese capital account. Beijing maintains strict controls on money flowing in or out of the mainland for investment. Pilot projects to allow residents in Wenzhou and Shanghai to invest overseas suggest that authorities are looking at new ways to liberalise some of those restrictions.

　　假如中國加快開放資本賬戶，可能會推動人民幣加快升值。目前中國政府仍然嚴格管制進出境的投資資金。在溫州和上海開展的允許個人投資海外的試點表明，當局正在研究放寬部分管制的新途徑。

　　“Historically, economies have either had an open or a closed capital account. Once you choose to open it, it feeds itself, making it very difficult to open the capital account gradually in practice,” says Mr Davies.

　　戴維斯表示：“從歷史上來看，一個經(jīng)濟體要么開放資本賬戶，要么封閉資本賬戶，而一旦選擇開放，整個過程就會自我增強，這意味著漸進開放資本賬戶在實踐中極其困難。”

　　He believes a rapid opening of the capital account could push the renminbi to strengthen faster. 他認為，假如中國迅速開放資本賬戶，人民幣升值步伐可能會加快。

　　But the consensus view points to a slow pace of reform. “Gradualism has worked well for the Chinese. We’ve seen some important steps in the opening of the capital account, but it’s a journey of a thousand miles”, says Mr Bond.

　　但主流觀點認為，改革將是緩慢的。邦德表示：“對中國人來說，漸進模式迄今很管用。在開放資本賬戶方面，我們看到中國政府采取了一些重大舉措，但這是千里之行。”