The outlook for China's housing sector is both crucially important for the world economy and─because of weakness in the data─very hard to predict.

　　中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的前景對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)有著至關(guān)重要的意義，但又非常難以預(yù)測(cè)，原因就出在數(shù)據(jù)的薄弱。

　　Despite a government push this year for more-accurate home-price data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, international markets─and most Chinese consumers─remain deeply dubious of the official monthly figures.

　　雖然政府今年努力提高國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局房?jī)r(jià)數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性，但國(guó)際市場(chǎng)和中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)大多數(shù)消費(fèi)者對(duì)于這個(gè)官方月度數(shù)據(jù)仍然存在深深的懷疑。

　　July data from the National Bureau of Statistics are due out Thursday, but confidence in the official figures is so low that the markets pay more attention to numbers from a private data provider, the China Real Estate Index System.

　　按計(jì)劃，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局周四將公布7月份數(shù)據(jù)，但市場(chǎng)對(duì)官方數(shù)據(jù)很不相信，所以把更多注意力放在了民間數(shù)據(jù)提供者“中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)系統(tǒng)”提供的數(shù)據(jù)上面。

　　China, an engine of global growth, has to do better at explaining this key sector of its economy. Take Shanghai, the country's financial hub and richest city. According to data from the China Real Estate Index System, prices of new apartments in Shanghai have risen by more than 150% in the past five years. That outpaces a 107% increase in wages over the same period─moving home ownership further out of reach for average earners.

　　作為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎的中國(guó)需要更好地闡釋自身經(jīng)濟(jì)中的這個(gè)關(guān)鍵行業(yè)。以全國(guó)金融中心、最富裕城市上海為例。中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)系統(tǒng)顯示，上海新房?jī)r(jià)格在過(guò)去五年里上漲150%以上。這超過(guò)同期107%的工資漲幅，使買(mǎi)房對(duì)于收入一般的人變得更加遙不可及。

　　But the official data tell a different story. According to China's NBS, prices for new apartments in Shanghai have climbed 20% over the past five years─well below the increase in wages.

　　但官方數(shù)據(jù)反映的是另一種情況。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，過(guò)去五年上海新房?jī)r(jià)格上漲20%，遠(yuǎn)低于工資漲幅。

　　As important, though the trend in both data series is upward, the path mapped out by the private data is more volatile─with bigger ups and downs in the growth rate than in the official data.

　　同樣重要的是，雖然兩組數(shù)據(jù)的趨勢(shì)都是上漲，但民間數(shù)據(jù)描述的軌跡波動(dòng)性更大，漲幅的擴(kuò)大、收縮幅度都大于官方數(shù)據(jù)。

　　Why is the difference between those two sets of figures so important? (Full disclosure: I investigate the question in detail in my book 'Understanding China's Economic Indicators.') Investment in residential real estate accounts directly for 12% of China's gross domestic product, and more than that when demand for steel, cement, and other construction materials is factored in. China's real-estate boom helps energize the domestic economy and keeps miners from Australia to Brazil flush with cash.

　　為什么說(shuō)兩組數(shù)據(jù)的差別如此重要呢？（備注：我在自己的《理解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)》(Understanding China's Economic Indicators)一書(shū)中詳細(xì)探討了這個(gè)問(wèn)題。）住宅類(lèi)房地產(chǎn)投資直接占到中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的12%，如果把鋼鐵、水泥和其他建筑材料的需求考慮在內(nèi)，這個(gè)比例還會(huì)更大。中國(guó)樓市的繁榮振興了國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)，也讓澳大利亞、巴西等國(guó)的礦商賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn)。

　　House prices are a key leading indicator of changes in policy, sales and investment. Rising prices attract speculators into the market. Entrepreneurs and billionaires descend on Beijing and Shanghai with suitcases of cash, snapping up entire floors of luxury residential developments. Higher sales encourage developers to break ground on more-lavish projects. But if prices rise too fast, the government has to step in to cool the market, speculators move to the sidelines, and developers put down their tools.

　　Reuters周日，一名工人為合肥一座大樓安裝窗戶(hù)。房?jī)r(jià)是政策、銷(xiāo)售和投資變化的重要先行指標(biāo)。房?jī)r(jià)上漲吸引炒客入市。企業(yè)家和億萬(wàn)富豪提著一箱箱的鈔票奔赴北京和上海，整層整層地?fù)屬?gòu)豪華住宅開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目。銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)鼓勵(lì)開(kāi)發(fā)商開(kāi)建更加奢華的項(xiàng)目。但如果房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快，政府就得出手冷卻市場(chǎng)，炒客就得退到一邊，開(kāi)發(fā)商就得偃旗息鼓。

　　Beijing could be forgiven for a little tardiness in getting up to speed on housing data. The boom that has made developers and speculators rich and left young professionals grasping for the first rung on the real-estate ladder is a recent phenomenon. As recently as 15 years ago, the private property market was almost nonexistent. Home for most workers was employer-provided housing. But with an incipient property bubble threatening to cause economic disorder and social unrest, the government has attempted to bring prices under control, with the latest crackdown kicking off in April 2010.

　　中國(guó)政府在了解房地產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)方面略有遲緩或許情有可原。樓市繁榮造富開(kāi)發(fā)商和炒客、讓年輕職業(yè)人士爭(zhēng)先恐后進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，是最近才有的一個(gè)現(xiàn)象；15年前，私人房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)還基本不存在，多數(shù)勞動(dòng)者的住房都是單位提供的。但由于初現(xiàn)端倪的房地產(chǎn)泡沫可能造成經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂和社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩，政府一直希望把房?jī)r(jià)控制下來(lái)，最新一輪調(diào)控在2010年4月份展開(kāi)。

　　Of course, if prices have risen only as fast as the official data suggest, there is no need to worry. With just a slight mismatch between prices and incomes, a brief period with a slower increase in prices will improve affordability. When that happens, the government will be able to loosen its controls, sales will rise, and developers will be powering up their cement mixers─reassuring international markets that the economy is humming along. If the official numbers are also correct that house prices typically move gradually and within a small range, even continued controls by the government are unlikely to result in a sharp correction.

　　當(dāng)然，如果房?jī)r(jià)上漲的速度僅僅是與官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示的一樣，那就沒(méi)有必要擔(dān)憂(yōu)。如果房?jī)r(jià)和收入之間僅有小幅的不匹配，那么短暫的房?jī)r(jià)上漲速度放慢就能提高居民置業(yè)的負(fù)擔(dān)能力。如果是這樣的情況，政府將能夠放松管制，房屋銷(xiāo)量將會(huì)上升，開(kāi)發(fā)商將讓水泥攪拌機(jī)開(kāi)始運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，而這些現(xiàn)象能讓國(guó)際市場(chǎng)相信中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)充滿(mǎn)活力。如果現(xiàn)實(shí)情況也有如官方數(shù)據(jù)所顯示的那樣，即房?jī)r(jià)通常只是逐漸上漲，且幅度較小，那么即便政府繼續(xù)控制房?jī)r(jià)也不可能導(dǎo)致樓市的大幅回調(diào)。

　　But if─as seems more likely─the China Real Estate Index System data are correct and prices are considerably out of whack with income, the government in Beijing and reluctant local officials will have to maintain controls on the sector for a long time, raising the specter of a rough patch for China's economy. Equally worrying, if movements in prices are as volatile as the private data suggest, the chances of a policy misstep leading to a sharp correction are higher.

　　但如果中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)系統(tǒng)的數(shù)據(jù)是正確的，房?jī)r(jià)漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于工資漲幅（看上去現(xiàn)實(shí)更可能是這種情況），那么中央政府和不情愿的地方官員將不得不長(zhǎng)時(shí)間維持對(duì)地產(chǎn)業(yè)的控制，這會(huì)提高中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同樣令人擔(dān)心的是，如果房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)的幅度正如中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)系統(tǒng)顯示的那樣劇烈，那么政策失誤導(dǎo)致劇烈回調(diào)的可能性會(huì)更高。

　　Despite, or perhaps because of, the importance attached to real estate, there are few areas of China's economy where the official data are less reliable. In 2009, the combination of a slowdown in growth that hit many home buyers in the pocketbook and continued failure by statisticians to report the rapid increase in house prices evident to would-be buyers was too much for public opinion to bear.

　　盡管中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)非常重要（或者也可能正因?yàn)槠渲匾裕?，中?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中卻沒(méi)有幾個(gè)行業(yè)的官方數(shù)據(jù)比地產(chǎn)業(yè)更不可靠。2009年，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩令許多購(gòu)房者荷包受損，而統(tǒng)計(jì)人員則多次未能公布快速上漲的房?jī)r(jià)（在潛在購(gòu)房者看來(lái)，這再明顯不過(guò)），這兩個(gè)因素疊加在一起令公眾輿論難以接受。

　　The National Bureau of Statistics’ announcement of an increase in average house prices of just 1.5% was met with public skepticism. One Chinese Internet commentator asked: ”Can you believe that? Obviously a misplaced decimal point.“

　　國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布的房屋均價(jià)漲幅僅為1.5%，遭到公眾的質(zhì)疑。中國(guó)一位網(wǎng)絡(luò)評(píng)論員問(wèn)道：你相信這個(gè)數(shù)字嗎？小數(shù)點(diǎn)顯然放錯(cuò)位置了。

　　Outrage over the 2009 data sparked some change. But the new system rolled out in January wasn't much of an improvement. On the plus side, outdated and unrepresentative samples that analysts believe were to blame for problems with the old data were replaced by a system that captures every sale of new property. On the down side, the national average figure─the best guide to the overall state of China's housing sector and a major focus of market attention─was shelved in favor of more detailed city-level data. That differs from practices in the U.S., where the monthly Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index and new-home sales data from the Census Bureau both provide national benchmarks for price changes as well as city or regional breakdowns.

　　公眾對(duì)2009年數(shù)據(jù)的憤怒引發(fā)了一些變化。但今年1月推出的新系統(tǒng)的改進(jìn)并不大。從有利的一面看，過(guò)時(shí)且不具代表性的樣本被一個(gè)能捕捉每一個(gè)新房銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)的系統(tǒng)所替代。分析師認(rèn)為，上述過(guò)時(shí)且不具代表性的樣本正是導(dǎo)致與老數(shù)據(jù)有關(guān)的各種問(wèn)題的原因。從不利的一面看，全國(guó)平均數(shù)據(jù)不再發(fā)布，取而代之的是更為詳細(xì)的市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)。全國(guó)平均數(shù)據(jù)被認(rèn)為是觀(guān)測(cè)中國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)整體狀況的最佳指南，也是市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的主要焦點(diǎn)。中國(guó)的這種做法和美國(guó)不同。在美國(guó)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司（Standard & Poor's）發(fā)布的Case-Shiller月度房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)以及人口普查局（Census Bureau）發(fā)布的新房銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)均會(huì)提供房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)的全國(guó)基準(zhǔn)值，并做城市或區(qū)域分解。

　　Adding to the confusion, local officials in China control the flow of high- and low-price property on to the market, affecting the movement of the data. Nicole Wong, China property analyst at CLSA, said when the government cracks down on property speculators, officials withhold permission for developers to bring high-value properties to market─contributing to the appearance of falling prices. When the heat is off, more-expensive developments are allowed back in.

　　此外，中國(guó)地方官員控制進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的高價(jià)房和低價(jià)房的數(shù)量也讓相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)更令人困惑。地方官員此舉會(huì)影響數(shù)據(jù)的變動(dòng)。里昂證券（CLSA）中國(guó)地產(chǎn)業(yè)分析師王艷（Nicole Wong）說(shuō)，當(dāng)政府打擊樓市投機(jī)現(xiàn)象時(shí)，地方官員就不許開(kāi)發(fā)商向市場(chǎng)推出高價(jià)房，這會(huì)造成房?jī)r(jià)下跌的假象。當(dāng)風(fēng)頭過(guò)去以后，更多高價(jià)房又被允許進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)。

　　Sleight of hand by local officials─moving the house-price index without changing the underlying situation─does little to solve China's housing bubble, or to provide investors and policy makers with an accurate understanding of the sector. If the Chinese government is serious about controlling runaway house prices, the first step should be to provide credible data on exactly how high home prices actually are.

　　沒(méi)有改變根本情況，只是改變了房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)──地方官員玩的這種小把戲?qū)鉀Q中國(guó)的樓市泡沫問(wèn)題沒(méi)有幫助，也無(wú)法讓投資者和決策者準(zhǔn)確了解中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的狀況。如果中國(guó)政府是在嚴(yán)肅對(duì)待控制失控房?jī)r(jià)的問(wèn)題，那么要走的第一步應(yīng)該是準(zhǔn)確提供房?jī)r(jià)到底有多高的可靠數(shù)據(jù)。