One of the first casualties of the fading global recovery: pressure for yuan appreciation.

　　全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇力度減弱最先造成的影響之一：人民幣面臨的升值壓力暫時減弱。

　　The world's economic elite is gathering in Washington for the International Monetary Fund's annual meetings, which run from Sept. 23-25. In the past, that has been an opportunity to exert a little pressure on China to allow faster yuan appreciation.

　　全球經(jīng)濟(jì)精英將聚首華盛頓，參加9月23日至25日舉行的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的年度會議。在過去，這個年會是向中國施加一點(diǎn)壓力、要求加快人民幣升值速度的機(jī)會。

　　The signs in August were certainly positive. The annualized pace of yuan appreciation against the dollar picked up to more than 11%, up from an average of around 5% in the first seven months of the year. The trade-weighted exchange rate, a more comprehensive measure of movements in the yuan, also gained some ground.

　　今年8月流露出的種種跡象當(dāng)然是積極的：折合年率計算，人民幣兌美元的升值速度加快到超過11%，而今年頭七個月的平均速度大約只有5%。而衡量人民幣幣值變動的更加全面的指標(biāo)貿(mào)易加權(quán)匯率也有所上升。

　　But August's surge has faded. Appreciation ground almost to a standstill in the first half of September, and it is unlikely to return to anything like August's electric pace. There are three reasons why Beijing allows accelerating gains in its currency: strong exports, high inflation and international pressure. A fading global recovery pushes back against all of them.

　　但8月的漲勢已經(jīng)消褪：9月上半月人民幣幾乎沒有升值，想要重現(xiàn)8月那種令人欣喜的漲勢是不可能的。中國政府允許加快人民幣升值速度的原因有三個：出口強(qiáng)勁，通脹較高以及國際壓力。但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的力度減弱抵消了上述所有三個因素。

　　August's trade data, which showed exports near a record high, were surprisingly strong. But with the U.S. and European economies teetering, the outlook is gloomy. The latest official survey of China's manufacturers shows overseas orders falling, which will make Beijing nervous about imposing additional currency pressure on exporters.

　　8月份的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國出口接近歷史高位，出人意料地強(qiáng)勁。但美國和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)搖搖欲墜，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景黯淡。對中國制造商的最新官方調(diào)查顯示，海外訂單數(shù)量下降，這令中國政府感到緊張，他們不愿再給出口商施加額外的匯率壓力。

　　Inflation, meanwhile, is high but appears to be past its peak. The consumer-price index fell to 6.2% year-to-year in August from 6.5% in July and a fading global recovery is expected to drag prices down further. Prices for China's commodity imports also have come off the boil. Crude oil fell to $86 a barrel in the first half of September from $113 a barrel in April. That reduces imported inflationary pressure, and the incentive to accelerate yuan appreciation.

　　 與此同時，通脹率盡管還在高位，但顯然已不在峰值。消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)（CPI）的同比增幅已從今年7月的6.5%下降到8月的6.2%，而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的力度減弱預(yù)計將進(jìn)一步拉低物價。中國進(jìn)口大宗商品的價格也開始回落。9月上半月的原油價格從4月的113美元/桶下跌至86美元/桶，油價的下跌降低了輸入型通脹的壓力，也打擊了政府加快人民幣升值的積極性。

　　On the political front, the European sovereign-debt crisis provides cover for China's leaders. An undervalued yuan, which helps Chinese firms gain market share at the expense of foreign rivals, might be part of the reason for Europe's malaise. But the immediacy of the crisis distracts attention from slow-burning issues like the exchange rate. Burgeoning foreign-exchange reserves, also a product of the controlled yuan, even allow China's leaders to pose as Europe's saviors, buying sovereign debt at their hour of need.

　　在政治方面，歐洲的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)給中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人提供了庇護(hù)。幣值被低估的人民幣可能是歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡不振的部分原因，因為人民幣幣值被低估有助于中國企業(yè)獲得市場份額，但損害的卻是外國競爭對手的利益。但歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的急迫性將外界的注意力從匯率等并不亟待解決的問題上分散開來。迅速累積的外匯儲備（這也是人民幣匯率被管制的結(jié)果）甚至讓中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能以歐洲國家救星的身份出現(xiàn)，在歐洲國家需要時購買他們的主權(quán)債務(wù)。

　　Yuan appreciation won't grind to a halt. An aggressive move by the Federal Reserve that has the impact of further weakening the dollar could force gains in the bilateral exchange rate. But a fading global recovery means August's accelerated appreciation already is old news.

　　人民幣升值的步伐不會停頓下來。美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）咄咄逼人的舉動（此舉帶來的影響是美元進(jìn)一步疲弱）可能會迫使雙邊匯率升值。但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的力度減弱意味著8月份人民幣加速升值的消息已是明日黃花。