The filibuster procedure in the US Senate has been used over many years to prevent decisions on many sensible matters. Next week, however, members of the upper legislative house may override the filibuster to support a deeply dangerous idea.

　　多年來，美國參議院的“冗長辯論”(filibuster)程序被用于阻止在很多敏感事情上的決定。然而，下周參議院可能越過這一程序，來支持一個極為危險的想法。

　　The Senate’s Democratic leadership has caved in to the demagogues and scheduled a vote on legislation designed to punish China for manipulating its currency, various incarnations of which have been floating around Capitol Hill for years.

　　參議院的民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)向煽動者屈服，并安排就一項旨在懲罰中國操縱匯率的法案舉行投票。多年來，不同形式的此類法案在國會山此起彼伏。

　　A small mercy is that successive iterations of the legislation have become progressively less extreme. The earliest – an across-the-board tariff on all Chinese imports – has been dropped. Now the commerce department would be required to include assessments of currency undervaluation in calculating “countervailing duties” against allegedly subsidised imports.

　　一個小小的幸運(yùn)之處在于，對該法案的反復(fù)重提已逐漸不那么極端。最早的法案（要求對所有中國進(jìn)口商品全盤征收關(guān)稅）已被放棄。如今，法案要求美國商務(wù)部在對被指得到補(bǔ)貼的進(jìn)口計算“反補(bǔ)貼稅”時，納入對匯率低估的評估。

　　Nonetheless, the bill remains a bad idea. No doubt Chinese currency manipulation has contributed at least partly to global imbalances. But the calculation of exchange rate misalignments is a highly uncertain business, and incorporating them into trade policy will involve endless debates – and most likely perpetual World Trade Organisation litigation – about the methodology of macroeconometric modelling.

　　不過，此項法案仍然是一個壞主意。毫無疑問，至少在一定程度上，中國的匯率操縱是導(dǎo)致全球失衡的背后推手。但計算匯率偏差是一件非常不確定的事情，將其納入貿(mào)易政策，會帶來圍繞宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)計量模型方法無休止的爭論，很有可能出現(xiàn)沒完沒了的世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)訴訟。

　　Moreover, such actions are likely to escalate, taking the “currency wars” into a new and highly litigious theatre of battle. Brazil, whose problems with an appreciating currency would have been better addressed by tightening fiscal policy rather than complaining about other countries, has even suggested rewriting WTO law to address exchange rate issues.

　　此外，此類行動有可能升級，將“匯率戰(zhàn)”帶入紛紛擾擾的新戰(zhàn)場。巴西甚至建議通過修改WTO規(guī)則來解決匯率問題，而實際上，通過收緊財政政策、而不是指責(zé)其他國家，能夠更好地解決該國的匯率升值問題。

　　It is not surprising that Democrats are lining up to support the bill – the bulk of the congressional party long ago abandoned free trade. More disappointing is that Barack Obama’s White House has declined to disavow the bill.

　　民主黨紛紛支持這項法案并不奇怪，該黨派在很久以前就拋棄了自由貿(mào)易。更為令人失望的,是巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的白宮(White House)拒絕否決該法案。

　　Equally disturbing is the likelihood that the Republicans will join them in this pre-election year. Mitt Romney, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has adopted a China-baiting platform, further marginalising free-trade opinion inside the party.

　　同樣令人不安的是，在明年就會舉行大選的情況下，共和黨有可能加入他們的行列。領(lǐng)先的共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人米特?羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)已采取了一套指責(zé)中國的競選綱領(lǐng)，從而在共和黨內(nèi)進(jìn)一步把自由貿(mào)易的觀點(diǎn)邊緣化。

　　Those concerned with the future of the global trading system should oppose this bill. Currency misalignment is a problem, but clumsy and most likely WTO-illegal legislation is not the way to deal with it – especially when the world is still struggling to maintain confidence in the face of the global financial crisis.

　　關(guān)心全球貿(mào)易體系未來的人們，應(yīng)該反對這項法案。匯率偏差是一個問題，但愚蠢、且很可能違反WTO規(guī)則的法案并非解決之道——尤其是在面臨全球金融危機(jī)、世界仍在為保持信心而苦苦掙扎的當(dāng)下。