Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn， but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.

　　在最新一次《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》調(diào)查中，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在秋天結(jié)束衰退，但認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)完全恢復(fù)還需數(shù)年時(shí)間。

　　On average， the 52 economists who participated in the wurvey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract at a seasonally adjusted annalized peace in the current quarter， compared with the drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter， with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.

　　平均而言，參與調(diào)查的52位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)衰退將于8月份結(jié)束。他們預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整，第二季度美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）折合成年率將收縮，今年第一季度為下降。他們預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在第三季度恢復(fù)緩慢增長(zhǎng)，明年上半年增速會(huì)超過(guò)2%.

　　The survey was conducted before the Commerce Department's report this week that retail sales fell in April from the previous month， which left some economists questioning whether consumer spending is ready to rebound. Initial unemployment claims released Thursday brought more gloomy news： Seasonally adjusted claims in the week ended May 9 increased 32，000 to 637，000 from a revised 605，000 in the preceding week. Most of the losses can be chalked up to Chrysler LLC's 27，000 layoffs following its April 30 bankruptcy filing.

　　在此次調(diào)查之后，美國(guó)商務(wù)部本周公布4月份零售額較上月下滑；這一數(shù)據(jù)促使一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家懷疑消費(fèi)者支出是否已經(jīng)做好回升準(zhǔn)備。周四公布的首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)帶來(lái)了更多黯淡消息：經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整，5月9日當(dāng)周首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)增加3.2萬(wàn)人，至63.7萬(wàn)人；此前一周數(shù)據(jù)修正后為60.5萬(wàn)人?？巳R斯勒在4月30日申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)后宣布裁員2.7萬(wàn)人是上周首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)增加的主要原因。

　　Separately， the April producer price index， which gauges prices at the wholesale level， rose driven by growth in food prices. The core price index， which excludes food and energy， was up .

　　此外，4月份生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）上升，主要受食品價(jià)格上漲推動(dòng)。不包括食品和能源的核心價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲。

　　Even before the new data were released， economists were expecting a major pullback in consumption. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents saidthe recent increase in the US saving rate is the beginning of a major behavioral shift.

　　即便在新數(shù)據(jù)公布前，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也預(yù)見(jiàn)到了消費(fèi)的顯著收縮。將近四分之三的調(diào)查受訪(fǎng)者表示，近期美國(guó)儲(chǔ)蓄率的上升標(biāo)志著一個(gè)重大消費(fèi)行為轉(zhuǎn)變的開(kāi)始。

　　A consumer retrenchment is one factor that is likely to make any recovery a long slog. The economists on average expect the unemployment rate to climb to by the end of the year， with two million more jobs lost over the next 12 months， even as growth returns to the economy.

　　消費(fèi)者節(jié)儉之風(fēng)是導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能漫長(zhǎng)艱難的一個(gè)因素。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家平均預(yù)計(jì)，今年年底前失業(yè)率會(huì)攀升至，未來(lái)12個(gè)月還會(huì)失去200萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位，即便經(jīng)濟(jì)重新開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)。

　　the depth of the downturn means it will take years to eat up the slack created by the recession. To gain back ground lost and being down unemplyment， the economy has to grow by more than its potential rate. Nearly half of the economists said it will take three to four years to close the output gap， while more than a quarter say it will take five to six years.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的嚴(yán)重程度意味著，要消除衰退帶來(lái)的影響還需要數(shù)年時(shí)間。為了奪回失地，壓低失業(yè)率，經(jīng)濟(jì)就必須以超出潛力的水平增長(zhǎng)。將近半數(shù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，消除產(chǎn)出缺口還需要三到四年時(shí)間；而超過(guò)四分之一的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，這個(gè)過(guò)程需要五到六年時(shí)間。

　　'We're going through a transition in the economy back to a more normal share of consumer spending relative to GDP，' said Pual Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp. 'This is a very deep and defining recession that is going to lead to a transformed US economy， and there transformations don't take place overnight.'

　　北方信托公司的卡斯里爾說(shuō)，我們將經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)過(guò)渡期，消費(fèi)支出相對(duì)于GDP的比例將重新回到一個(gè)更為正常的水平。這是一次非常嚴(yán)重而關(guān)鍵性的衰退，會(huì)推動(dòng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)型，而這些轉(zhuǎn)型不會(huì)一蹴而就。

　　The survey respondents were more positive about the financial sector. A third of the economists said the recently completed bank stress tests were a well-done and very constructive process， while half said they were helpful even if they understand risks. Last week， the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department released the results of tests to gauge how well banks' balance sheets would withstand the recession. Meanwhile， more than three-quarters said President Barack Obama's administration won't have to go back to Congress for more money to aid banks.

　　調(diào)查受訪(fǎng)者對(duì)金融行業(yè)較為樂(lè)觀(guān)。三分之一的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，近期完成的壓力測(cè)試做的不錯(cuò)，是項(xiàng)非常有建設(shè)性的工作；不過(guò)有半數(shù)受訪(fǎng)者說(shuō)，即便測(cè)試低估了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也會(huì)有所幫助。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)和財(cái)政部上周公布了壓力測(cè)試結(jié)果，評(píng)估銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況能否抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。與此同時(shí)，超過(guò)四分之三的人表示，奧巴馬政府不需要再次向國(guó)會(huì)尋求資金救助銀行。

　　Half the respondents said that fiscal and montary stimulus has provided the basis for a sustainable receovery. Twenty-seven percent said it has boosted the economy， but they had doubts about sustainability. 'The Fed has the big guns and has effectively averted a depression or a much more severe recession.'said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

　　半數(shù)受訪(fǎng)者說(shuō)，政府的財(cái)政和貨幣刺激措施已經(jīng)為經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇奠定了基礎(chǔ)。有27%的人說(shuō)，這些措施已經(jīng)給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了提振，但他們懷疑成效能否持久。Mesirow Financial的斯旺克表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)起了重大作用，它已經(jīng)有效避免了經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入蕭條或是一場(chǎng)非常嚴(yán)重的衰退。

　　The role of the Fed in stablizing the market has boosted the outlook for Chairman Ben Bernanke. On avrage， the economists say there is a 72% chance that Mr. Obama will reappoint the Fed chairman in 2010. 'If there's a hero to this piece， it's Ben Bernanke，' Mr. Kasriel said.

　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)方面發(fā)揮的作用也給該機(jī)構(gòu)主席伯南克的前景帶來(lái)了幫助。平均而言，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為伯南克有72%的可能性在2010年獲得連任。卡斯里爾說(shuō)，如果這其中有個(gè)英雄的話(huà)，那就是伯南克。