Automotive officials predicted slower growth in China's market this year, even as big car makers prepared to unveil new models at the Shanghai auto show─an event that will highlight the country's importance to the global industry.

　　正當(dāng)大型汽車(chē)制造商為在上海車(chē)展推出新車(chē)型而摩拳擦掌時(shí)，汽車(chē)業(yè)官員卻預(yù)計(jì)，今年中國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)增速將放緩。上海車(chē)展將凸顯出中國(guó)對(duì)于全球汽車(chē)業(yè)的重要性。

　　Speaking at a forum Monday, a day ahead of the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition, a senior government official warned that auto makers in the world's largest car market risk being left with excess capacity if they don't adjust to slower sales growth.

　　 Bloomberg News在周一舉行的上海汽車(chē)展開(kāi)幕前，人們?cè)谟^看一輛全新設(shè)計(jì)的大眾甲克蟲(chóng)。上海國(guó)際汽車(chē)工業(yè)展覽會(huì)(Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition)開(kāi)幕前一天，中國(guó)政府一位高官周一在論壇上講話(huà)時(shí)提醒說(shuō)，中國(guó)這個(gè)世界上最大的汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售增速將減緩，如果汽車(chē)制造商不能適應(yīng)這一局面，可能會(huì)面臨生產(chǎn)能力過(guò)剩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　"We haven't seen overcapacity in China's auto market in the past few years, but if auto makers keep output growth at the current pace, China's auto market will see overcapacity sooner or later," said Su Bo, deputy industry and technology minister.

　　中國(guó)工業(yè)和信息化部副部長(zhǎng)蘇波說(shuō)，過(guò)去幾年，我們認(rèn)為中國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)不存在產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的問(wèn)題，但如果汽車(chē)制造商保持目前的產(chǎn)量增速，中國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)遲早會(huì)出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩。

　　China's annual auto shows─which alternate between Beijing and Shanghai─have become a major event for the industry, as China overtook the U.S. in 2009 to become the world's biggest car market. But a sales slowdown in China is presenting new challenges for auto makers, who are adopting different strategies to cope.

　　隨著中國(guó)2009年超過(guò)美國(guó)一舉成為全球最大的汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)每年一度的車(chē)展(由北京和上海輪流舉辦)已成為汽車(chē)業(yè)的一大盛事。但中國(guó)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售減速正給汽車(chē)制造商帶來(lái)新挑戰(zhàn)，這些制造商正紛紛采取不同的應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略。

　　Car sales in China rose 8.8% from a year earlier in the first quarter to 4.98 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sharply lower than the growth of 71.8% recorded in the first quarter of 2010.

　　據(jù)中國(guó)汽車(chē)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)的統(tǒng)計(jì)，今年一季度中國(guó)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量同比增8.8%，至498萬(wàn)輛，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于2010年一季度71.8%的增速。

　　Foreign auto makers differ in their response to the slowdown. Some, such as General Motors Co. of the U.S., are coming up with low-cost China-only brands to appeal to middle-class buyers.

　　外國(guó)汽車(chē)制造商對(duì)中國(guó)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售減速持不同看法。美國(guó)通用汽車(chē)公司(General Motors Co.)等一些汽車(chē)制造商為吸引為中產(chǎn)階級(jí)，正在推出只面向中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的低成本汽車(chē)品牌。

　　GM plans to unveil at the Shanghai show the first car produced under the company's new China-only brand, Baojun. Made with local joint-venture partners Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co., the car "will address the growing demand across the country for affordable personal transportation," GM China President Kevin Wale said in a written statement.

　　 通用汽車(chē)計(jì)劃在上海車(chē)展上推出中國(guó)市場(chǎng)專(zhuān)有品牌寶駿(Baojun)的首款車(chē)型。這款汽車(chē)由通用汽車(chē)與中國(guó)合資企業(yè)伙伴上海汽車(chē)工業(yè)(集團(tuán))總公司(Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.)和柳州五菱汽車(chē)有限責(zé)任公司(Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co.)共同生產(chǎn)。通用汽車(chē)中國(guó)公司總裁甘文維(Kevin Wale)在一份書(shū)面聲明中說(shuō)，寶駿汽車(chē)將滿(mǎn)足中國(guó)人不斷增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)負(fù)擔(dān)得起的個(gè)人交通工具的需求。

　　GM's China auto sales rose 10% from a year earlier in the first quarter, about one-third as fast as they rose in the year-earlier quarter. Still, GM also said Monday that it expects to double its sales in China to about five million vehicles by 2015 from about 2.35 million in 2010─in part by introducing more than 60 new models and major product upgrades in the country.

　　通用汽車(chē)中國(guó)公司今年一季度汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量同比增10%，是去年一季度增幅的約三分之一。盡管如此，通用汽車(chē)周一說(shuō)，預(yù)計(jì)該公司在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上的銷(xiāo)量到2015年將增至500萬(wàn)輛左右，是2010年約235萬(wàn)輛的兩倍，實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的方式之一是要推出60余款新車(chē)型，并對(duì)中國(guó)銷(xiāo)售的汽車(chē)進(jìn)行大規(guī)模的產(chǎn)品升級(jí)。

　　Luxury car makers such as Daimler AG of Germany say they believe any challenges that are facing the mass market don't apply to China's new rich. China sales of Daimler's Mercedes-Benz vehicles surged 86% in the first quarter, although the brand's total number of cars sold was a small fraction of GM's.

　　 德國(guó)戴姆勒公司(Daimler AG)等豪華汽車(chē)制造商說(shuō)，他們認(rèn)為中國(guó)市場(chǎng)面臨的任何挑戰(zhàn)都不適用于中國(guó)的新富階層。戴姆勒公司旗下的梅賽德斯——奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)汽車(chē)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上今年一季度的銷(xiāo)量猛增86%，不過(guò)這一品牌售出的汽車(chē)總量只相當(dāng)于通用銷(xiāo)量的很小一部分。

　　Daimler's Northeast Asia chairman, Ulrich Walker, said last week he expects China sales of Mercedes-Benz cars to rise 20% this year. Premium-car sales haven't been affected as much by the slowdown as small-car sales, Mr. Walker said.

　　 戴姆勒東北亞地區(qū)董事長(zhǎng)華立新(Ulrich Walker)上周說(shuō)，他預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)梅賽德斯-奔馳的銷(xiāo)量今年將上升20%，豪華汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量受中國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)整體銷(xiāo)售減速的影響并不像小型汽車(chē)那么大。

　　The Shanghai auto show will also be overshadowed by questions about the impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, as well as a continuing nuclear-power crisis, on Japan's big car companies.

　　3月11日地震和海嘯以及仍在上演的核電危機(jī)將對(duì)日本各大汽車(chē)公司產(chǎn)生何種影響，這方面的問(wèn)題也將給上海汽車(chē)展蒙上陰影。

　　Despite domestic production problems, Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. all said their chief executives plan to attend the Shanghai show. Toyota Motor Corp. said it will monitor its quake-disrupted domestic operations before deciding whether President Akio Toyoda will attend.

　　雖然國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)有問(wèn)題，本田汽車(chē)(Honda Motor Co.)、日產(chǎn)汽車(chē)(Nissan Motor Co.)和三菱汽車(chē)(Mitsubishi Motors Corp.)說(shuō)，它們的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)都計(jì)劃參加上海車(chē)展。豐田汽車(chē)公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)說(shuō)，它將在監(jiān)測(cè)受地震中斷的國(guó)內(nèi)運(yùn)營(yíng)之后，再?zèng)Q定總裁豐田章男(Akio Toyoda)是否出席。

　　Honda CEO Takanobu Ito's planned attendance at Shanghai was initially canceled after last month's disaster, a Honda spokeswoman said. 'But eventually we concluded he should go' given China's growing importance as a growth driver for Honda, she said.

　　本田一位發(fā)言人說(shuō)，上個(gè)月災(zāi)難發(fā)生后，公司先是取消了CEO伊東孝紳(Takanobu Ito)出席上海車(chē)展的計(jì)劃。但她說(shuō)，考慮到中國(guó)作為本田增長(zhǎng)助推器越來(lái)越重要的地位，最后我們認(rèn)為他應(yīng)當(dāng)前往。

　　Nissan decided to attend the event because the company's foreign rivals, which are less troubled by the disruption in Japan-made parts procurement, are set to unveil a series of new concept cars to entice local customers at the show, a Nissan spokesman said.

　　日產(chǎn)一位發(fā)言人說(shuō)，該公司決定參展，是因?yàn)槠鋰?guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手受日制零部件供應(yīng)中斷的困擾沒(méi)有其那么大，預(yù)計(jì)將在展會(huì)上公布一系列新型概念車(chē)吸引中國(guó)客戶(hù)。

　　The broad market slowdown in China has been driven by several factors, including higher oil prices, restrictions on car purchases in cities such as Beijing to alleviate traffic conditions, and the expiration of tax incentives for the purchases of smaller cars, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

　　中國(guó)汽車(chē)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)說(shuō)，中國(guó)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的整體放緩是受到了多種因素的影響，其中包括油價(jià)升高、北京等城市限制汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)以緩解交通狀況，以及購(gòu)買(mǎi)小排量汽車(chē)的稅收優(yōu)惠措施到期等。

　　The association has forecast that car sales will rise in a range of 10% to 15% this year. But at a briefing earlier this month, the group expressed concern that growth may fall behind even those relatively modest estimates. Total sales rose 32% last year to 18.1 million vehicles, following growth of 46% in 2009.

　　 汽車(chē)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)曾預(yù)計(jì)今年汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量增幅在10%到15%之間。但在本月早前的一次吹風(fēng)會(huì)上，該協(xié)會(huì)擔(dān)心實(shí)際增幅可能比這種相對(duì)不高的估計(jì)數(shù)字還低。去年總銷(xiāo)量是1,810萬(wàn)輛，增長(zhǎng)32%，2009年增速為46%。

　　Zeng Qinghong, vice chairman of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., said he believes China's auto market can post sales growth of at least 10% this year, as auto sales usually rebound from May.

　　廣州汽車(chē)工業(yè)集團(tuán)有限公司(Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.)副董事長(zhǎng)曾慶洪說(shuō)，他相信今年中國(guó)市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)率至少可以達(dá)到10%，因?yàn)槠?chē)銷(xiāo)量常常從5月份開(kāi)始反彈。

　　Others were less optimistic. Joe Hinrichs, president of Ford Motor Co.'s Asian-Pacific and Africa operations, said he expects China's overall auto sales to rise in a range of 5% to 10% this year, a pace that he described as "more rational" than in previous years.

　　其他人沒(méi)有這么樂(lè)觀。福特汽車(chē)公司(Ford Motor Co.)亞太與非洲區(qū)總裁辛瑞奇(Joe Hinrichs)說(shuō)，他預(yù)計(jì)今年中國(guó)市場(chǎng)汽車(chē)總銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)幅度在5%到10%，他說(shuō)，這樣的增速相比前幾年“更加理性”。

　　The automobile manufacturers association has argued that the auto industry is a "pillar industry" for China, and that some of the small-car tax subsidies that have expired will likely be restored if auto-sales growth falls behind economic growth, which is generally expected to be about 9.5% this year.

　　 中國(guó)汽車(chē)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)曾說(shuō)，汽車(chē)工業(yè)是中國(guó)的“支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)”，如果汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)落后于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，那么已經(jīng)到期的部分小排量汽車(chē)稅收補(bǔ)貼措施可能會(huì)恢復(fù)。今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度普遍預(yù)測(cè)為9.5%。

　　Mr. Su, the vice minister, said the "unsustainable sales surge" of 2009 and 2010 isn't likely to be maintained. But he also emphasized that the industry has strong long-term prospects.

　　 工信部副部長(zhǎng)蘇波說(shuō)，2009年和2010年不可持續(xù)的銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)不太可能維持。但他也強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)，汽車(chē)行業(yè)長(zhǎng)期前景不錯(cuò)。

　　"China still has big potential for a long-term sales growth, and China will be the largest auto market for a long time," Mr. Su said, citing the pickup in demand in rural areas and China's second- and third-tier cities. China has only 58 cars per 1,000 people currently, he added, showing vast room for further growth.

　　蘇波說(shuō)，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)仍有很大的長(zhǎng)期銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)潛力，中國(guó)將長(zhǎng)時(shí)間維持最大汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的地位。其理由是農(nóng)村地區(qū)和二三線城市需求的增長(zhǎng)。他說(shuō)，中國(guó)當(dāng)前每1,000人只有58輛汽車(chē)，說(shuō)明還有巨大的進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)空間。