Mark another milestone for China's ever-rising economic profile: UBS emerging-markets economist Jonathan Anderson has declared China's property industry "the single most important sector in the entire global economy."

　　中國(guó)不斷增強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力出現(xiàn)又一里程碑：瑞銀(UBS)新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德森(Jonathan Anderso)說(shuō)，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中最重要的一個(gè)行業(yè)。

　　In a research note Wednesday, Mr. Anderson, a longtime China watcher, says that "real-estate and housing construction pervade the entire [China] growth model. They are the most important determinant of commodity demand, a very big marginal driver of China's external surpluses, and indeed a crucial key to real understanding of household balance sheets, saving and investment behavior and the debate around Chinese rebalancing." In other words, he says, "from a macroeconomic perspective if you don't understand Chinese property, you probably don't understand China."

　　長(zhǎng)期觀(guān)察中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的安德森周三在一份研究報(bào)告中說(shuō)：房地產(chǎn)和住房建設(shè)已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)模式的顯著特征，它們是決定大宗商品需求的最重要因素；也是造成中國(guó)外部盈余的重大推手；還是真正理解中國(guó)家庭的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、儲(chǔ)蓄和投資行為以及有關(guān)中國(guó)再平衡討論的關(guān)鍵一環(huán)。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，從宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的視角看，如果你不理解中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)，你就不理解中國(guó)。

　　Many global investors won't find the declaration all that surprising, having seen shares in many companies buffeted over the past year by Beijing's efforts to wrestle with soaring house prices while trying to avoid undercutting the construction industry. But it is remarkable sign of the times nevertheless. As Mr. Anderson notes, "until very recently' the proper response to the question of which sector is most important 'would almost certainly have been U.S. financials and/or U.S. housing."

　　Reuters北京市中心的一處住宅區(qū)附近的建筑工地，一名男子邊走邊打電話(huà)。許多全球投資者并不會(huì)覺(jué)得上述言論有多么令人吃驚，他們?cè)谶^(guò)去一年中看到，由于中國(guó)政府在同飛漲的房?jī)r(jià)作斗爭(zhēng)的同時(shí)還要避免過(guò)分打擊建筑業(yè)，許多公司的股價(jià)因此遭受打擊。但無(wú)論如何，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)仍是這個(gè)時(shí)代的顯著標(biāo)志。正如安德森寫(xiě)所指出的，直到不久前，對(duì)于“哪個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)是最重要的”這個(gè)問(wèn)題，最恰當(dāng)?shù)拇鸢高€幾乎肯定是美國(guó)金融業(yè)或美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)。

　　The numbers tell much of the story. China is the world's largest consumer of steel, and Mr. Anderson notes that real estate directly accounts for 40% of Chinese steel usage. Add home appliances and automobiles which he notes tend to directly follow new housing purchases in China--the share is more than 50%. Similar logic applies to other products like cement, iron ore, coal, and construction equipment.

　　數(shù)字最能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題。中國(guó)是世界上最大的鋼鐵消費(fèi)國(guó)，安德森說(shuō)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)直接占了中國(guó)鋼鐵消費(fèi)量的40%，而家電制造、汽車(chē)制造和房地產(chǎn)這三個(gè)行業(yè)則直接占據(jù)了中國(guó)鋼鐵消費(fèi)量的50%以上。據(jù)安德森觀(guān)察，中國(guó)人購(gòu)買(mǎi)新房之后，通常會(huì)購(gòu)置家電和汽車(chē)。類(lèi)似的邏輯同樣適用于水泥、鐵礦石、煤炭和建筑設(shè)備等產(chǎn)品。

　　Property construction 75% of which in China is housing--accounted for more than 13% of China's gross domestic product last year, UBS estimates more than double the average of 6% in the 1990s. Mr. Anderson says that explains why investment overall accounts for such a large share of China's economy an estimated 47% to 48% of GDP last year, which is an absolute record for any economy of significant size in the post-war era, and almost single-handedly explains China's explosive real growth over the same period.

　　據(jù)瑞銀估計(jì)，房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)去年對(duì)中國(guó)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率超過(guò)13%（其中75%是住房建設(shè)），是6%這一上世紀(jì)90年代平均水平的兩倍多。安德森說(shuō)，這可以解釋為什么投資在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)了如此大的比重。據(jù)估計(jì)去年這一比重約為47%至48%。安德森說(shuō)，對(duì)于戰(zhàn)后任何一個(gè)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)，這都絕對(duì)是最高記錄，僅此一點(diǎn)就幾乎足以解釋中國(guó)為何能實(shí)現(xiàn)爆炸性的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)。

　　So is China's property sector a bubble? And how long can the boom continue? Mr. Anderson temporarily punts on those all-important questions, saying colleague Wang Tao, UBS's China economist, will weigh in next week.

　　那么，中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)會(huì)是一個(gè)泡沫嗎？繁榮又能持續(xù)多久呢？對(duì)于這些十分重要的問(wèn)題，安德森暫時(shí)避而不談，只說(shuō)他的同事汪濤（瑞銀中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家）會(huì)在下周論及這些問(wèn)題。