Gold continued its upward march in a time of global financial tumult, closing above $1,500 an ounce Thursday for the first time as investors seek safe haven in the metal.

　　在全球金融市場動蕩不安、投資者尋求金屬類投資品做避風港時，黃金繼續(xù)保持上行趨勢，周四收盤價首次突破每盎司1,500美元的大關。

　　In a remarkable performance for any sort of asset, gold has notched a record high every day this week─on days when investors were alternately gloomy and optimistic. On Monday, as stocks swooned after Standard & Poor's warned about the credit rating of the U.S., gold reached a new high. It kept rising on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, as stocks soared on impressive corporate earnings.

　　Getty Images由于一時間過多投資者涌入金市，行情迅速逆轉的風險變得越來越大。同股市和債市相比，黃金市場盡管頗受歡迎，但規(guī)模相對較小，更容易受投資者情緒波動的影響。本周，黃金每天都會創(chuàng)下新高，對于任何資產(chǎn)來說都可謂表現(xiàn)不凡，而投資者情緒在本周卻是悲觀與樂觀交替出現(xiàn)。周一，標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)對美國信貸評級提出警告，股市大跌，金價創(chuàng)出新高。而隨著上市公司財報喜人，美國股市大漲，金價也在周二和周三持續(xù)上揚。

　　On Thursday, gold rose $4.90 an ounce to $1,503.20, another nominal record high and its first settlement above $1,500. Gold is up for five straight weeks, and has gained 5.8% so far this year. Gold will not trade in the U.S. today, Good Friday.

　　周四，黃金上漲4.90美元，至每盎司1,503.20美元，再創(chuàng)名義價格的新高，收盤價首次升穿1,500美元。金價連續(xù)五周上漲，今年截至目前已累計上漲5.8%。復活節(jié)前的周五是耶穌受難日(Good Friday)，美國市場將因此休市一天。

　　The reason for gold's ability to do well in any market lies in its recent role as a haven from concerns about the dollar, inflation and shocks in Europe, the Middle East and Japan.

　　黃金之所以能在全球市場表現(xiàn)良好，原因在于它在投資者擔心美元貶值、通脹高企及歐洲、中東和日本等地的問題對經(jīng)濟帶來沖擊時，發(fā)揮了避險功能。

　　"Gold has more than one hat right now," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global. "What people are seeing around the globe is that there's really nowhere to hide right now. When one camp cools down on buying gold, you are seeing another camp come in."

　　全球曼氏金融(MF Global)旗下Lind-Waldock的資深市場策略師克洛普費恩斯坦(Adam Klopfenstein)說，黃金現(xiàn)在扮演的角色不只一個，人們放眼全世界，發(fā)現(xiàn)實在沒有可以避險的地方了，所以對于黃金的買入總是此消彼長。

　　Gold's rise is a broader reflection of a lack of confidence in governments' abilities to sort out fiscal problems.

　　廣義而言，金價上漲反映出投資者對政府解決財政問題的能力缺乏信心。

　　Investors are concerned not only about the value of the U.S. dollar, a worry accentuated by S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S. debt outlook. They also are concerned about the outlook for the euro, as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe worsens, and the yen, which faces hurdles as the Japanese economy recovers from its recent earthquake and tsunami.

　　投資者不光是擔心美元貶值(這種擔心被標準普爾下調(diào)美國國債評級展望而有所放大)，還擔心歐元和日圓的前景。擔心歐元是因為歐洲主權債務危機不斷惡化，而日圓則是由于日本經(jīng)濟要從前不久的地震和海嘯中復蘇過來，日圓升值面臨困難。

　　Gold is seen as a lasting store of value, which doesn't erode like that of currencies.

　　黃金被看作是有持久存儲價值的投資品，不像貨幣那樣容易貶值。

　　"If you have two major currencies looking a little bit wobbly, some investors and speculators put their money into gold," said Barry M. Wainstein, Global Head of Foreign Exchange & Precious Metals at Scotia Capital, a subsidiary of Bank of Nova Scotia.

　　加拿大豐業(yè)銀行(Bank of Nova Scotia)旗下Scotia Capital的外匯及貴金屬業(yè)務全球主管溫斯坦(Barry M. Wainstein)說，如果兩種主要貨幣的匯率看似有點不穩(wěn)，一些投資者和投機者就會把手里的錢換成黃金。

　　Some currency traders have sold their positions and bought physical gold recently, he said. As the metal barrels higher, investors of all stripes are jumping in. And buyers are increasingly taking possession of gold, instead of trading futures contracts.

　　溫斯坦說，一些外匯交易商近來賣掉了頭寸，買入了實物黃金。隨著金價急速上升，各路投資者均紛紛加入到購入黃金的行列中來。買家開始越來越多地買入黃金，而不是買賣期貨合約。

　　Everyone from university endowments to small individual investors has been buying bars and coins. Operators of storage vaults are scrambling to find more space to shelter the bullion, and are stepping up hiring to deal with the extra work load.

　　無論是大學捐款基金還是小打小鬧的散戶投資者，所有機構和個人都在買入金條和金幣。金庫運營商正在相互爭搶，希望找到更多可以存放黃金的空間，并且開始大力增加人手，以處理增加的工作量。

　　The metal has rallied despite the interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China in early April. A higher interest rate means a higher return on cash, and typically is negative for gold, which yields nothing. However, gold investors took the rate increases in stride.

　　盡管歐洲央行(European Central Bank)和中國央行在4月初分別加了息，但金價的升勢卻并未打住。加息意味著現(xiàn)金回報率上升，對黃金一般來說是利空消息，不會給黃金投資帶來任何收益。然而這次，黃金投資者卻對加息表現(xiàn)得氣定神閑。

　　Gold has scaled new heights in all currencies. In dollars, gold rose 1.2% this week, in euro terms it rose 0.9%, and in pounds it is up 0.5%.

　　無論以何種貨幣計算，金價都已創(chuàng)下新高。本周，美元計價的黃金上漲1.2%，歐元計價的上漲0.9%，英鎊計價的上漲0.5%。

　　John Hummel, chief investment officer with AIS Futures Management LLC, which oversees $500 million in assets, said he is "extremely bullish on gold." About 80% of AIS's $125 million Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio is in gold.

　　打理著5億美元資產(chǎn)的期貨管理公司AIS Futures Management LLC首席投資長赫梅爾(John Hummel)說，他對黃金極為看好，并說該公司價值1.25億美元的策略性資產(chǎn)配置組合(Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio)中，有約80%投資的都是黃金。

　　His primary argument: Central banks and private investors are increasingly turning to gold as an alternative store of value as paper currencies continue to fall. As of the end of March, central banks around the world held 27,219.8 metric tons of gold, or 11.3% of their total reserve holdings, according to the World Gold Council. The rest is held in the form of reserve currencies such as the U.S. dollar.

　　他的主要論點是：隨著紙幣幣值繼續(xù)下跌，各國央行和私人投資者正日益轉向黃金作為價值儲藏的替代方式。世界黃金協(xié)會（World Gold Council）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至3月底，全球各國央行共計持有27,219.8公噸的黃金，占其總外匯儲備的11.3%。其余部分是以美元等儲備貨幣的形式持有的。

　　"At some point, foreign holders will refuse to accept greater amounts of U.S. debt or the dollar as reserve currency," Mr. Hummel said in a note to investors.

　　赫梅爾在一份報告中告訴投資者，某些時候，外國央行會拒絕增持美國國債，或拒絕將美元作為儲備貨幣。

　　Some people are concerned by the fact that gold is on everyone's buy list.

　　有些人則擔心眼下每個人都想買黃金的情況。

　　The greater risk for gold at this stage is not higher interest rates, but growth and stability, said Daniel Brebner, head of metals research for Deutsche Bank in London.

　　德意志銀行駐倫敦的金屬研究部主管布雷布納（Daniel Brebner）說，目前這個階段黃金面臨的更大風險不是利率走高，而是經(jīng)濟增長和形勢穩(wěn)定。

　　Gold could lose allure if investors conclude that the world has returned to a benign investment environment, where growth is sustainable without extraordinary government support. If that happens, he said, "the reasons for investors moving into gold start to reverse."

　　如果投資者斷定全球投資環(huán)境恢復良性，即不需政府額外支持就能實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)增長，那么黃金可能失去吸引力。布雷布納說，如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，投資者涌入黃金的理由就會開始逆轉。

　　Because so many have piled into the market so quickly, the risk of a swift reversal becomes ever greater. The gold market, while popular, is relatively small compared to stocks and bonds, making it more sensitive to sentiment swings.

　　由于一時間過多投資者涌入金市，行情迅速逆轉的風險變得越來越大。同股市和債市相比，黃金市場盡管頗受歡迎，但規(guī)模相對較小，更容易受投資者情緒波動的影響。

　　Demand in India, the largest consumer of gold, is likely to fade once its festival season ends with the arrival of the monsoons in June, said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL Commodities, a commodities broker.

　　大宗商品經(jīng)紀商INTL Commodities全球貴金屬業(yè)務負責人羅茲（Jeffrey Rhodes）說，一旦節(jié)日季結束、6月的雨季到來，全球最大的黃金消費國印度的需求有可能降低。

　　Mr. Rhodes still thinks gold will move higher later this year. And some say gold has much further to rise. GFMS Ltd., a London-based metals consultancy, predicts gold will reach $1,600 an ounce before the end of this year.

　　羅茲仍然認為今年下半年金價將進一步走高，也有人說黃金還有很大的上漲空間?？偛课挥趥惗氐慕饘兕檰柟綠FMS Ltd.預計年底前金價將達到1,600美元一盎司。

　　The University of Texas Investment Management Company recently converted all its gold futures holdings into physical bullion, worth about $1 billion.

　　美國德克薩斯大學投資管理公司（University of Texas Investment Management Company）最近將持有的全部黃金期貨轉換成了實物黃金，價值大約10億美元。

　　"It's a very conservative hedge" against some low-probability scenarios, such as the debasement of a major currency, said Bruce Zimmerman, chief executive officer of the $26.6-billion fund. The Texas fund has 20.7 tons of gold stored in a New York vault.

　　該公司首席執(zhí)行長齊默爾曼（Bruce Zimmerman）說，這是針對主要貨幣貶值等小概率事件做出的非常保守的對沖。德克薩斯大學的這家投資管理公司的資金規(guī)模為266億美元，在紐約的一座保險庫里存有20.7噸黃金。

　　In 2010, total physical bullion investment soared 66% to 880 metric tons, says GFMS, and the trend looks set to be repeated this year.

　　GFMS說，2010年，實物黃金投資總計飆升66%，至880噸。今年似乎還將重現(xiàn)這一趨勢。

　　"These are long-term holdings," said Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, an online service for private investors to trade precious metals. Physical holdings are farther from the financial markets and less prone to short-term sell-offs.

　　BullionVault 研究部負責人阿什（Adrian Ash）說，這些（實物黃金）都是長期持有的。長期持有的實物黃金在金融市場上并不活躍，很少出現(xiàn)短期拋售的現(xiàn)象。BullionVault為私人投資者交易貴金屬提供在線服務。

　　In Oklahoma City, bullion dealer American Precious Metals Exchange has seen a surge of orders for gold bars and coins. In the past year, the company has doubled its work force and tripled its phone connections, said Michael Haynes, chief executive officer. To warehouse more gold, it had to double its vaulting space located underground in a former Federal Reserve building in downtown Oklahoma City in November.

　　在俄克拉荷馬城，黃金交易機構美國貴金屬交易所（American Precious Metals Exchange）購買金條和金幣的訂單激增。據(jù)該交易所首席執(zhí)行長海恩斯（Michael Haynes）介紹，在過去的一年，該所增加了一倍人手，電話數(shù)量是原來的三倍。為了裝下更多的黃金，去年11月該交易所將位于俄克拉荷馬下城的前地區(qū)聯(lián)儲大樓下的金庫擴大了一倍。

　　"All of those people that missed out buying gold...are kind of re-energized and jumping in," said Robert Higgins, chief executive of First State Depository LLC, a Wilmington, Delaware-based storage operator. He has hired three people in the past six weeks and is considering starting a night shift to handle all the inquiries.

　　位于特拉華州威爾明頓（Wilmington）專門提供貴金屬存儲空間的First State Depository LLC 的首席執(zhí)行長希金斯（Robert Higgins）說，所有那些錯過買入黃金的人現(xiàn)在又激動地躍躍欲試。過去六周里希金斯招聘了三個人，目前他正考慮是否要開始增加夜班以處理所有的咨詢。