Three Morgan Stanley analysts are the latest to weigh in on an old question that has lately resurfaced among China-watching economists: How much longer can China continue to grow at a 10% a year and provide a rocket-ship-sized engine of growth for a sputtering world economy? Associated Press

　　摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的三位分析師最近加入了一場有關(guān)老問題的爭論：中國每年10%的增長速度還能保持多久？還能繼續(xù)充當(dāng)全球經(jīng)濟高速運轉(zhuǎn)的增長引擎多長時間？這個問題近來在關(guān)注中國的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家中再次引發(fā)了爭論。

　　Not much longer, say the three, but the deceleration will be slight, to an 8% annual growth rate through 2020. That would be a growth record that nearly any country would envy.

　　在這三位分析師看來，不會有多久了。但增長速度也不會大幅放緩，到2020年之前中國還將維持8%的年增長速度。這樣的增長記錄恐怕任何一個國家都會嫉妒。

　　China optimists and pessimists agree on certain propositions:

　　關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟增長前景，無論是樂觀者還是悲觀者，都會同意以下幾個命題：

　　-- No country can grow at 10% a year forever. China is unique in world history for having done it for 30 years.

　?。瓫]有一個國家能永遠以10%的速度增長。過去30年中國做到了這一點。在世界歷史上，這也是獨一無二的。

　　-- China needs to 'rebalance' its economy so it relies more on consumer spending and less on investment because China will soon reach diminishing returns with its investment strategy.

　?。袊仨氄{(diào)整經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)以減少對投資的依賴，擴大國內(nèi)消費支出的規(guī)模，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的再平衡。因為中國投資策略的收益將很快開始遞減。

　　-- China's population is aging rapidly , which is usually a bad sign for economic vitality.

　　－－中國人口老齡化速度很快，這對于經(jīng)濟活力來說通常是一個不利的信號。

　　-- China needs to innovate. Continued productivity improvements are crucial for continued fast growth.

　?。袊枰獎?chuàng)新。生產(chǎn)力的持續(xù)提升是經(jīng)濟持續(xù)快速增長的必要條件。

　　Where the debaters disagree is on whether China can manage to turns its potential negatives into positives.

　　雙方存在爭議的是：中國能否成功地將潛在的不利因素轉(zhuǎn)換成有利因素。

　　Morgan Stanley analysts Qing Wang, Steven Zhang and Ernest Ho note that economic growth tends to decelerateâ 'sometimes rapidly-- when GDP per capita reaches about $7,000, as calculated by a form of purchasing power parity, which tries to equalize prices in different countries. China surpassed that level in 2008. "If history is a guide and the law of gravity applies to China," the three analysts write. "China's economic growth is set to slow," as Japan and Korea did when they hit the $7,000 mark.

　　摩根士丹利三位分析師王慶、章?。⊿teven Zhang）以及何泓哲（Ernest Ho）注意到，按購買力平價計算，當(dāng)人均GDP達到約7,000美元時，經(jīng)濟增長速度往往開始下降，有時還很快。中國在2008年就超過了上述水平。三位分析師寫道，如果歷史能夠借鑒，且重力原理適用于中國，那么中國的經(jīng)濟增長將注定放緩，就像日本和韓國達到7,000美元的標(biāo)桿后經(jīng)歷的那樣。

　　But unlike those two nations, China has an ace in the hole, says Mr. Wang. It's a continental-sized economy, which means that it can continue to grow rapidly by using its geographic size and population heft. It can encourage lower-end manufacturing to move to the lower-paid western part of the country â ' a trend that's already happening -- and it can encourage young rural residents to move to the cities to work in plants and factories there. The farm-to-city migration will diminish the negative effect of the overall aging of the Chinese population, the Morgan Stanley analysts argue.

　　但在王慶看來，與日韓不同的是，中國還手握一張王牌：中國的大陸面積龐大，這意味著中國能夠利用其國土面積和人口規(guī)模繼續(xù)快速發(fā)展。中國可以鼓勵低端制造業(yè)向工資較低的西部地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移（事實上中國已經(jīng)在這么做），還可以鼓勵年輕的農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)移到城市的工廠工作。在摩根士丹利的分析師看來，農(nóng)村人口到城市的遷移將削弱中國人口整體老齡化的負面影響。

　　"There is no candidate to replace China any time soon (as the world's factory floor) except India," says Mr. Wang. "But India isn't ready given its lack of infrastructure."

　　王慶說，除印度外，沒有哪個國家有望很快取代中國成為世界工廠。不過，鑒于印度基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的缺乏，印度還沒有準(zhǔn)備好取代中國。

　　Most controversially perhaps, the analysts predict what they call "a golden age of consumption." China's consumption as percentage of GDP is currently among the lowest in the world, which many analysts attribute to cautious Chinese families saving money for their retirements or to pay for healthcare bills. But Mr. Wang says Chinese consumers aren't waiting for the government to build a new social safety net before they spend more. They're waiting to make more money, which they'll do as labor demand boosts wages over the coming decade. Consumer spending zoomed in Korea and Japan after those countries reached the $7,000 mark.

　　或許最具爭議的是，這三位分析師預(yù)測會出現(xiàn)“消費的黃金時代”。中國消費占GDP的比重目前屬全球最低之列，很多分析人士將其歸因于謹慎的中國家庭為退休或支付醫(yī)療費而存錢。不過，王慶說，中國消費者少花錢，并不是為了等待政府建立新的社會保障制度，而是在等待掙更多的錢；隨著未來10年對勞動力的需求推動工資增長，人們的收入會增加。在韓國和日本的人均GDP達到7,000美元大關(guān)后，這兩個國家的消費支出大幅上升。

　　The big downside, says Mr. Wang, is that prices are likely to rise in China, with inflation increasing from an average of 1.9% in the past decade to around twice that, or more, through 2020. That means China will become a source of inflation for the rest of the world, which imports its goods, rather than a source of price stability  or even deflation as it has been in the past.

　　王慶說，一個主要的不利因素是中國的物價很可能會上升，至2020年通貨膨脹率將較過去10年平均的1.9%約漲一倍甚至更多。這就意味著中國將成為其他進口中國產(chǎn)品的國家和地區(qū)的通脹來源，而不是像過去一樣是價格穩(wěn)定甚至通貨緊縮的來源。

　　Of course, the Morgan Stanley analysts could wind up to be too optimistic. In paper released last month, Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University, came up with their own calculations of when growth is likely to slow, and figured China would smash that speed bump around 2015.

　　當(dāng)然，摩根士丹利的分析師們可能過于樂觀了。在上個月公布的報告中，加州大學(xué)伯克利分校(University of California at Berkeley)的艾琴格林(Barry Eichengreen)、亞洲開發(fā)銀行(Asian Development Bank)的Donghyun Park和高麗大學(xué)(Korea University)的Kwanho Shin對增長何時可能會放緩也進行了計算，他們得出中國將在大約2015年達到“減速帶”。

　　That paper said the growth rates of other fast growing nations fell by at least two percentage points once they hit a certain income level. In China's case that would reduce growth to around 8%, essentially the same figure that the Morgan Stanley analysts forecast. But Messrs Eichengreen, Park and Shin report that other economists estimate that China's growth could slow to between 5% and 6% annually between now and 2030, a far sharper decline than the Morgan Stanley trio anticipate.

　　他們的報告說，其他經(jīng)濟迅速增長的國家在達到某個收入水平后，經(jīng)濟增速下滑了至少兩個百分點。換句話說，屆時中國的增速將降至約8%，這與摩根士丹利分析師們的預(yù)測實際上是一致的。不過，艾琴格林、Park和Shin說，據(jù)其他經(jīng)濟學(xué)家估計，從現(xiàn)在到2030年，中國經(jīng)濟年增速可能會放緩至5%到6%，比摩根士丹利三位分析師預(yù)測的減速程度要大的多。