A shortage of pigs is set to push China's consumer-price index to a new high, meaning a respite from inflationary pressure may be several months away.

　　中國的消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)漲幅很可能因?yàn)樯i短缺而走向新高，這意味著通脹壓力的緩解可能還要等上好幾個(gè)月。

　　The official data on inflation in June won't be published until July 15. But the early signs are that it will show the CPI popping above 6% year on year. That is far above the government's target of 4% and earlier forecasts by many investment-bank economists, who started the year predicting a peak of around 5%.

　　官方6月份通脹數(shù)據(jù)要到7月15日才會發(fā)布，但早期跡象表明數(shù)據(jù)將顯示CPI同比增幅突破6%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于政府4%的既定目標(biāo)，也高于早前很多投行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)測。年初時(shí)他們預(yù)計(jì)CPI增幅將見頂于5%左右。

　　The proximate cause, once again, is food prices. End-of-June prices for pork, China's favorite meat, are up 67% year on year. Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America, says pork alone will contribute 1.6 percentage points to June's CPI.

　　直接原因仍是食品價(jià)格。作為中國最受歡迎肉類的豬肉，6月底價(jià)格較去年同期上漲67%。美國銀行(Bank of America)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺說，單豬肉一項(xiàng)就將為6月份CPI增幅貢獻(xiàn)1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　This isn't the first time pork prices have pushed the inflation index to worrying levels. In February 2008, a similar pork shortage sent prices soaring, the main factor behind inflation jumping to 8.7%.

　　這是不是通脹指數(shù)第一次因?yàn)樨i肉價(jià)格而升至令人擔(dān)憂的水平。2008年2月，也是豬肉的短缺導(dǎo)致物價(jià)飆升，成為通脹率升至8.7%的主要因素。

　　The government's solution to the 2008 pig crisis -- subsidies that encouraged farmers to ramp up pork production -- has a lot to do with the causes of the current dearth. The surge in production that followed the subsidies in 2008 led to a collapse in pig prices in summer 2009. That in turn caused farmers to slaughter sows and reduce breeding.

　　為解決2008年豬肉危機(jī)，政府提供了補(bǔ)貼，鼓勵(lì)農(nóng)民增加豬肉生產(chǎn)。這跟當(dāng)前豬肉短缺的成因存在很大關(guān)系。2008年補(bǔ)貼后產(chǎn)量大增，結(jié)果使生豬價(jià)格在2009年夏季大幅下跌。這又導(dǎo)致農(nóng)民屠宰母豬、減少飼養(yǎng)量。

　　Pork prices are now at record highs, which should strengthen incentives to increase production. But higher prices for output are only part of the equation for farmers. The price of corn, the major cost in the production of pork, is just as important.

　　豬肉價(jià)格目前處在前所未有的高水平，應(yīng)當(dāng)會使農(nóng)民有更大的動(dòng)力去增加產(chǎn)量。但對于農(nóng)民來說，出欄價(jià)格上漲只是等式的一邊，作為豬肉生產(chǎn)主要成本的玉米價(jià)格也一樣重要。

　　Record corn prices in China, mainly as a result of growing demand for animal feed, have reduced profit for pig farmers. A ratio of 6 to 1 in the price of pork to corn is the minimum for farmers to break even. The number has hovered just above that level for much of the last year, and only moved significantly higher in the last month.

　　主要是因?yàn)閯?dòng)物飼料需求增長，中國的玉米價(jià)格達(dá)到從未有的高水平，這就壓縮了豬農(nóng)的利潤。肉價(jià)至少要達(dá)到玉米價(jià)格的六倍，才能夠讓農(nóng)民不賠不賺。這個(gè)比例僅略高于去年很大一段時(shí)間的水平，只是在上個(gè)月才明顯升高。

　　A fall in international corn prices should help alleviate cost pressures. But even as higher pork and lower corn prices improve incentives for farmers, pigs conceived today won't come to market until the first quarter of 2012. That means China's high inflation could be more persistent than investors expect.

　　如果國際玉米價(jià)格下降，那么成本壓力應(yīng)當(dāng)會在一個(gè)方面得到緩和。但是，即便豬肉價(jià)格上漲、玉米價(jià)格下跌增加農(nóng)民養(yǎng)豬的動(dòng)力，今天孕育的小豬也要到2012年第一季度才會抵達(dá)市場。這意味著中國的高通脹可能會比投資者預(yù)期的更加持久。