China is at a critical decision-making juncture, with inflation likely having hit new highs in the past month, even as other indicators are pointing to a slowdown in growth. A debate is now raging over whether the central bank should ease up on its tight monetary policy.

　　ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images 中國正處于一個關(guān)鍵的決策時刻，通貨膨脹可能已在過去一個月觸及新高，而其他指標(biāo)則表明增長在放緩。有關(guān)央行是否應(yīng)放松緊縮貨幣政策的問題正在引發(fā)一場激烈的爭論。Critics of the People's Bank of China from other ministries and various state think tanks have begun to argue that it has tightened policy too far in its zeal to contain inflation. In particular, they charge that the central bank's series of hikes to the level of required reserves for banks is choking off access to credit for smaller borrowers.

　　中國人民銀行遭到許多來自其他政府部門和各類國家智庫的人士的批評，這些批評人士已經(jīng)開始宣稱，央行為遏制通脹收緊政策做的太過火了。特別是，他們指責(zé)央行一系列上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率的舉動阻斷了較小借貸者獲得信貸的通道。

　　Government economist Ba Shusong, for instance, wrote in a commentary piece  on Tuesday in the Economic Information Daily that the central bank should raise rates again--it has done so four times since October--to address inflation fears, but at the same time lower the reserve requirement ratio to create a better credit environment for small-and-medium enterprises, or SMEs. Mr. Ba is deputy director-general of the Financial Research Department of the State Council's Development Research Center, essentially an economic adviser to China's top policy makers in the State Council.

　　AndrewHarrer/Bloomberg2011年5月9日，周一，中國央行行長周小川出席在美國華盛頓舉行的中美戰(zhàn)略與經(jīng)濟(jì)對話的開幕儀式。例如，政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家巴曙松周二在《經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報》發(fā)表的一篇文章中寫道，央行應(yīng)在適當(dāng)加息以抑制通脹預(yù)期的同時，適當(dāng)降低準(zhǔn)備金率以改善中小企業(yè)的信貸環(huán)境。央行從去年10月以來已經(jīng)四次加息。巴曙松是國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心金融研究所副所長，本質(zhì)上就是國務(wù)院最高決策者的經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問。

　　Another paper, the China Business News, reported on Monday that some government officials are pushing for a revision of the country's monetary policy stance, to a term that could be translated as “relatively tight, with directed loosening.”

　　《第一財經(jīng)日報》周一報道說，部分政府官員正在推動中國的貨幣政策立場向“相對緊縮、定向?qū)捤?rdquo;轉(zhuǎn)變。

　　This new stance would recognize that relatively tight policy is still needed to keep liquidity in check, while allowing some loosening to give small and medium-sized companies better access to credit, to give local-government financing platforms continued funding, and to boost the auto industry, the newspaper said.

　　該報說，這種新思路將會認(rèn)可，仍然需要相對緊縮的政策來控制資產(chǎn)流動性，同時允許一定程度的寬松為中小企業(yè)提供更好的獲得信貸的通道，為地方政府融資平臺提供持續(xù)的資金支持，并且推動汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。

　　Allies of the central bank, meanwhile, are hitting back against its critics. Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the central bank, told reporters last week that the monetary policy stance “should not and will not” be altered. He said that other measures could be taken to address the concerns of smaller companies, such as special tax breaks and the full legalization of some gray-market lenders that provide finance to them currently.

　　與此同時，央行的支持者則在向批評者還擊。央行學(xué)術(shù)顧問李稻葵上周對記者說，貨幣政策立場“不應(yīng)、也不會改變”。他說可以采取其他措施解決小企業(yè)的問題，比如針對小企業(yè)的特別稅收減免、將目前服務(wù)于小企業(yè)的非正規(guī)私人融資公司合法化等。

　　Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting weighed in on Tuesday, essentially agreeing with Mr. Li. "Fortunately, policymakers know that the issue of SME financing should be addressed by changing institutions such as opening up the banking sector instead of loosening monetary policies," he wrote in a note. Mr. Lu expects some loosening of the country's fiscal policy stance, such as additional spending on social housing projects, that could bolster growth.

　　美國銀行/美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺周二也發(fā)表了自己的看法，實際上與李稻葵的觀點(diǎn)相同。他在一份報導(dǎo)中寫道，幸運(yùn)的是，決策人士知道，中小企業(yè)融資問題應(yīng)該通過改革機(jī)構(gòu)而不是放寬貨幣政策加以解決，比如開放銀行業(yè)。陸挺預(yù)計，中國財政政策立場將有一定程度的放寬，比如在保障房項目上的更多支出，財政政策的放寬有望支撐增長。

　　As the debate plays out, confusion reigns in the markets as to the future direction of policy. On Tuesday, a commentary piece in a newspaper backed by the central bank suggested it might slow the pace of tightening. The PBOC may "appropriately slow the pace of policy adjustments and lower the intensity of policy," a reporter for the Financial News wrote in the piece. Despite appearing in a paper backed by the central bank, the commentary piece doesn't necessarily represent its official views.

　　隨著論戰(zhàn)逐漸展開，圍繞政策未來走向的困惑開始在市場上盛行。周二，中國央行支持的一家報紙發(fā)表社論，暗示央行可能會放緩緊縮步伐?！督鹑跁r報》的記者在一篇文章中說，預(yù)計中國央行將適度放緩政策調(diào)節(jié)節(jié)奏、降低政策力度。盡管這篇社論發(fā)表在央行支持的報紙上，卻不一定代表央行的官方觀點(diǎn)。

　　Indeed, other papers had a radically different read on the PBOC's intentions. Citing a PBOC statement on Monday that warned for the umpteenth time about inflation pressures, the Economic Information Daily, which is backed by the state-run Xinhua news service, said an interest rate hike could come this weekend [zh]. The state-run China Securities Journal was more cautious, saying a rate hike is likely this month.

　　實際上，其他報紙對央行的意圖有著迥然不同的看法?！督?jīng)濟(jì)參考報》援引央行周一一再次就通脹壓力提出警告的聲明說，本周末可能加息。該報隸屬于新華社。《中國證券報》則更為謹(jǐn)慎，說本月可能會加息。

　　Dow Jones Newswires latest poll, last month, found that eight of 10 China economists expect at least one more interest rate increase this year, with most of them predicting it would come late last month or this month.

　　上個月道瓊斯通訊社對10位中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的最新調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，有八位預(yù)測今年至少會再加息一次，其中大部分預(yù)測加息將發(fā)生在上個月底或本月。

　　The central bank, notoriously unpredictable and prone to making big announcements on holidays and weekends, could step in any time with a decisive move. Barring that, some clarity may come in mid-July. A raft of economic data, including June inflation and second-quarter gross domestic product growth, are due to be released on July 15. Around the same time, the State Council, or cabinet, is expected to announce the results of a meeting on the official economic policy stance in the second half of the year. Until then, expect further debate and confusion.

　　中國央行是出了名的難以預(yù)測，常常在節(jié)假日或周末宣布重大舉措。央行可能會隨時采取決定性的措施。除此之外，7月中旬形勢可能會有一定程度的明了。7月15日將公布一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，其中包括6月份通貨膨脹率和二季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速。大約與此同時，預(yù)計國務(wù)院將公布有關(guān)下半年官方經(jīng)濟(jì)政策立場的會議結(jié)果。在此之前，預(yù)計會有更多的爭論和困惑。