China's debt-burdened Railways Ministry, under fire after last month's deadly train crash, might need a central government bailout and will have difficulty raising new funds, some analysts predict, adding to concerns around the country's high-speed rail system.

　　中國(guó)鐵道部負(fù)債累累，在上個(gè)月造成人員傷亡的撞車事件后備受指責(zé)。一些分析人士預(yù)測(cè)，鐵道部或許需要中央政府的援助，在籌集新資金方面也將面臨一定的困難，這讓有關(guān)中國(guó)高速鐵路系統(tǒng)的擔(dān)憂進(jìn)一步加劇。

　　Construction of the fast-train network was a linchpin of China's economic stimulus plan to counter the global financial crisis. Led by lending from commercial banks, the Railways Ministry's debt burden increased to hundreds of billions of dollars, largely used for accelerating the construction of the high-speed network, which Beijing heralded as world class.

　　European Pressphoto Agency周四，一列高速列車駛?cè)氡本┠险?。建設(shè)高速鐵路網(wǎng)是中國(guó)為應(yīng)對(duì)世界金融危機(jī)推出的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的關(guān)鍵組成部分。商業(yè)銀行貸款是鐵道部的主要債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，這筆債務(wù)已增至數(shù)千億美元，基本上被用作加快高速鐵路網(wǎng)的建設(shè)。中國(guó)政府號(hào)稱這是世界的高速鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

　　The railways' debt woes are part of the larger stimulus tab now starting to weigh on China's government and could also call into question the economics -- and not just the safety standards -- of an industry China had hoped would become a significant global export.

　　鐵道部的債務(wù)問(wèn)題是更大規(guī)模刺激計(jì)劃的一部分，這個(gè)計(jì)劃不僅開(kāi)始讓中國(guó)政府焦慮不安，也可能讓人們質(zhì)疑鐵路工業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義，而不僅僅是質(zhì)疑其安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。中國(guó)本希望高速鐵路能成為重要的全球出口業(yè)務(wù)。

　　The July 23 collision between two high-speed trains, which killed 40 people and injured 191, has unleashed widespread public anger that analysts say has likely weakened the clout of the formerly powerful Railways Ministry -- the only Chinese government agency other than the Finance Ministry allowed to issue bonds -- both within the government and with investors. That in turn is fueling doubts about its ability to raise more funds needed to cover its existing debts and keep building the prized high-speed network and is prompting some to call for the ministry's restructuring or abolition.

　　今年7月23日，造成40人死亡、191人受傷的動(dòng)車相撞事故激起了普遍民憤。有分析人士說(shuō)，這種民憤可能削弱了原本勢(shì)力強(qiáng)大的鐵道部在中國(guó)政府內(nèi)部以及對(duì)投資者的影響力。鐵道部是中國(guó)除財(cái)政部外唯一一個(gè)獲準(zhǔn)發(fā)行債券的政府機(jī)構(gòu)。其影響力削弱也讓外界愈發(fā)質(zhì)疑鐵道部是否有能力籌措更多資金，以償還現(xiàn)有債務(wù)，繼續(xù)修建其引以為豪的高速鐵路網(wǎng)。有人甚至要求重組或取消鐵道部。

　　“Given the way the accident has drawn attention to the [Railways Ministry's] management practices, it may well be awhile before the [ministry] can come back to the debt markets,” Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green said in a research report. “There will be financing difficulties and, inevitably, increased pressure on interest payments.”

　　相關(guān)閱讀渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王志浩(Stephen Green)在一份研究報(bào)告中說(shuō)，鑒于動(dòng)車事故引發(fā)人們對(duì)鐵道部管理方式的關(guān)注，可能要過(guò)很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間鐵道部才能重新回到債市，鐵道部將出現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)困境，其償還利息的壓力必然會(huì)增大。

　　Mr. Green said he doubts the rail ministry's operations generate enough free cash flow to cover the interest payments on its debts. He and other analysts said that the Ministry of Finance likely will have to step in at some point with a capital injection.

　　王志浩說(shuō)，他懷疑鐵道部的業(yè)務(wù)是否能產(chǎn)生足夠多的自由現(xiàn)金流，以償還其借款利息。王志浩和其他分析師說(shuō)，財(cái)政部可能會(huì)在特定情況下通過(guò)注資來(lái)插手干預(yù)。

　　China's Railways Ministry didn't respond to requests to comment.

　　中國(guó)鐵道部沒(méi)有回應(yīng)置評(píng)要求。

　　For the central government, the ministry woes add to concerns around debt from the stimulus plan. Special borrowing entities created by local governments have also racked up enormous debts -- about $1.65 trillion, or 27% of China's gross domestic product last year, according to a June estimate by the National Audit Office. Private-sector estimates have put the total higher.

　　對(duì)于中央政府來(lái)說(shuō)，鐵道部的麻煩加劇了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)的擔(dān)憂。地方政府成立的專門借款實(shí)體也累積了巨額債務(wù)。據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)家審計(jì)署6月份的估計(jì)，這筆債務(wù)總計(jì)約1.65萬(wàn)億美元，相當(dāng)于中國(guó)去年GDP的27%。私營(yíng)部門估計(jì)這一數(shù)字更大。

　　While few question the government's ultimate ability to cover such debts, analysts warn that the burden could suck funds away from other fiscal priorities and could saddle China's state-run banks with bad loans.

　　盡管很少有人質(zhì)疑政府最終償還此類債務(wù)的能力，但分析師警告說(shuō)，債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)可能會(huì)吸走用于其他優(yōu)先財(cái)政項(xiàng)目的資金，并可能會(huì)令中國(guó)的國(guó)有銀行承受不良貸款的壓力。

　　Zhao Jian, professor of economics at Beijing Jiaotong University, said that ultimately the Ministry of Railways needs to be restructured, splitting the commercial elements of the rail network from the government's control.

　　北京交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授趙堅(jiān)說(shuō)，最終鐵道部需要進(jìn)行重組，將鐵路網(wǎng)的商業(yè)部分從政府控制中分出去。

　　'Currently people are paying the most attention to the crash and safety side of the issue, but this will lead them to scrutinize more Ministry of Railways' debt and finance issues,' said Mr. Zhao. 趙堅(jiān)說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在人們最關(guān)注的是動(dòng)車事故以及安全方面的問(wèn)題，但這會(huì)讓他們對(duì)鐵道部的債務(wù)和財(cái)務(wù)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行更多審視。

　　Even before the crash, the high-speed network was under fire over corruption and expensive tickets that put the high-speed trains out of reach for ordinary Chinese.

　　早在事故發(fā)生前，高速鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)就已經(jīng)因腐敗和高票價(jià)遭到猛烈批評(píng)。昂貴的票價(jià)令普通中國(guó)人對(duì)高速列車可望不可及。

　　“Building high-speed rail cannot generate enough cash flow. Cash flow comes from the number of passengers,” said Mr. Zhao. “They should have built ordinary trains, but instead they built high-speed ones, which doesn't correspond to market demand.”

　　趙堅(jiān)說(shuō)，建設(shè)高速鐵路無(wú)法產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金流；現(xiàn)金流來(lái)自旅客人數(shù)；本應(yīng)制造普通列車的，但他們卻制造了高速列車，這不符合市場(chǎng)需求。

　　The Railways Ministry's debts have ballooned in recent years. At the end of the first quarter its obligations totaled 1.98 trillion yuan ($307 billion), about 5% of China's gross domestic product, up from about 2% in 2007.

　　鐵道部的債務(wù)在近幾年迅速膨脹。截至今年第一季度末，鐵道部債務(wù)總額達(dá)到人民幣1.98萬(wàn)億元（合3,070億美元），約相當(dāng)于中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的5%，高于2007年的約2%。

　　In a prospectus issued July 14 for a planned bond issue, the Railways Ministry disclosed that its operating costs in the first quarter exceeded its operating revenue by 3.8 billion yuan, raising the prospect it may struggle to find enough cash to cover interest payments, particularly if its debt burden expands further.

　　在7月14日發(fā)布的債券發(fā)行計(jì)劃章程中，鐵道部披露第一季度的經(jīng)營(yíng)成本高出營(yíng)業(yè)收入38億元，人們因此預(yù)計(jì)鐵道部可能會(huì)很難找到足夠的現(xiàn)金來(lái)支付利息，若其債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)進(jìn)一步加劇，難度可能會(huì)更大。

　　“There is no evidence that operating revenues can grow significantly faster than operating costs,” said Mr. Green. “Indeed the evidence at present suggests the opposite may be true.”

　　王志浩說(shuō)，沒(méi)有證據(jù)顯示營(yíng)業(yè)收入的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)比經(jīng)營(yíng)成本快得多；事實(shí)上目前的證據(jù)表明可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)相反的情況。

　　The bond sale, which occurred two days before the July 23 accident, failed to find enough buyers for the full 20 billion yuan issue.

　　債券是在7月23日事故發(fā)生前兩天開(kāi)始發(fā)行的，總額人民幣200億元的債券未能找到足夠多的買家。

　　As a sovereign issuer backed by the financial resources of the Chinese government, there is no concern it will default on its bonds. However, sentiment is clearly moving against the ministry as a debt issuer.

　　作為一個(gè)由中國(guó)政府財(cái)政資源支持的主權(quán)發(fā)行機(jī)構(gòu)，不必?fù)?dān)心鐵道部會(huì)違約。但普遍的情緒明顯是不看好身為發(fā)債人的鐵道部。

　　A Shanghai-based analyst with a brokerage firm who deals with the Railways Ministry said he originally expected it to issue between 140 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan of bonds over the rest of this year -- more than doubling the 2010 figure. He now expects the amount to be scaled back given indications demand is fading for the debt. The ministry has already issued 105 billion yuan of new bonds this year, up from 115.5 billion yuan for the whole of last year.

　　供職于上海一家與鐵道部有往來(lái)的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的一位分析師說(shuō)，他起初預(yù)計(jì)鐵道部從現(xiàn)在起到年底會(huì)發(fā)行人民幣1,400億到1,600億元的債券，比2010年同期增加一倍以上。現(xiàn)在由于債務(wù)需求出現(xiàn)了逐步降低的跡象，他預(yù)計(jì)發(fā)行量會(huì)減少。鐵道部今年已經(jīng)新發(fā)行了1,050億元的債券，去年全年為1,155億元。