Even arguably the world's most powerful man seems unable to dampen gold's shine. Reuters

　　美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬(Barack Obama)可以說是世界上最有權(quán)力的人，但他似乎也無法掩蓋黃金的光芒。

　　U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday that the country's sparring political parties have reached a tentative deal to raise the country's debt ceiling, cut the federal deficit and avoid a credit default. The news has taken the wind out of gold's sails, pushing prices some $25 a troy ounce down from their recent high, but the market's longer-term prospects don't appear to be significantly dented.

　　奧巴馬周日說，美國打打鬧鬧的兩個(gè)政黨已經(jīng)達(dá)成了提高債務(wù)上限、削減聯(lián)邦赤字、避免信用違約的初步協(xié)議。這一消息曾給黃金造成打擊，使其價(jià)格較近期高點(diǎn)下跌了大約每盎司25美元。但這個(gè)市場(chǎng)更長(zhǎng)期的前景似乎并沒有受到明顯影響。

　　Gold has been widely viewed as a safe place to put money as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, which have suffered as the potential for systemic financial risk has increased. The market peaked at an all-time high of $1,632.74/oz Friday, aided by deteriorating confidence in the U.S. dollar and a euro zone ricocheting from one economic disaster to another.

　　由于出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性增加，美國國債和美元遭受打擊，而黃金又被普遍視為替代性的安全投資工具。上周五，因投資者對(duì)美元越來越?jīng)]有信心，而歐元區(qū)躲過一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難又遇上另一個(gè)災(zāi)難，黃金價(jià)格見頂于每盎司1,632.74美元的歷史高點(diǎn)。

　　A large number of investors are holding long positions in gold, heightening the potential for a sizeable selloff if both chambers of Congress vote to accept the deal.

　　很多投資者是持有黃金多頭，所以如果參眾兩院都表決通過奧巴馬所說的協(xié)議，黃金價(jià)格就更有可能急劇下跌。

　　But there are enough rumblings of negativity, particularly around the outlook for the dollar, to keep gold's appeal as a safe bet intact.

　　但悲觀討論有很多，特別是關(guān)于美元的前景，這些討論足以讓黃金作為避險(xiǎn)工具的吸引力不受影響。

　　"On Aug. 1, the U.S. dollar officially lost its place as the world's safe currency as a store of value,' said Tom Winnifrith, a fund manager at t1ps Investment Management. 'In the absence of an alternative, the only currency whose value is not being systematically destroyed by politicians remains gold, and if you think recent increases in the gold price were startling, you ain't seen nothing yet."

　　投資管理公司t1ps Investment Management基金經(jīng)理溫尼弗里思(Tom Winnifrith)說，8月1日，美元正式失去它作為世界安全儲(chǔ)值貨幣的地位；在缺乏替代品的情況下，唯一一個(gè)沒有被政治家系統(tǒng)性地毀掉價(jià)值的貨幣依舊是黃金，而如果你覺得近期金價(jià)的上漲讓人吃驚，好戲還在后頭。

　　Winnifrith is tipping gold to reach $2,100/oz before the next U.S. presidential election in 2012.

　　溫尼弗里思預(yù)計(jì)金價(jià)將在美國2012年下次總統(tǒng)選舉之前達(dá)到每盎司2,100美元。

　　Although others argue the dollar has already fallen in anticipation of a U.S. default or downgrade, and that major holders--like China--won't rush for the exit, they concede that the fallout will be felt for years to come, adding to gold's allure.

　　其他人說，因?yàn)橥顿Y者預(yù)期美國違約或被下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)，美元已經(jīng)而下跌，而且中國等其他重要持有人也不會(huì)急著退出。但他們也承認(rèn)，后續(xù)影響將為時(shí)數(shù)年，從而使黃金的魅力進(jìn)一步增加。

　　The passage of the proposed debt deal isn't a done deal. Its fate may be assured in the Senate, but Republican representatives are likely to give the bill a tougher ride. Both houses need to accept the proposal for it to become law. Even if agreement is quickly reached by Congress, the reaction of the ratings agencies poses a larger question mark.

　　擬議的債務(wù)方案還不一定能夠獲得通過。其命運(yùn)在參議院可能是有保障的，但共和黨眾議員可能不會(huì)讓它那么順利通過。議案要成為法律，則必須在兩院獲得通過。即使國會(huì)很快達(dá)成協(xié)議，評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)做何反應(yīng)，也構(gòu)成了一個(gè)更大的問題。

　　Under the proposed deal, the debt ceiling will be raised to $17.7 trillion from $14.3 trillion and in return the government will make plans to cut spending by $1 trillion over the next decade and charge a special committee with finding a further $1.5 trillion savings over the same period. But this won't be enough for some agencies, which deem cuts of $4 trillion necessary for the U.S. to maintain its AAA rating.

　　根據(jù)擬議方案，債務(wù)上限將從14.3萬億美元提高到17.7萬億美元，作為條件，政府將制定未來10年削減支出1萬億美元的方案，并委托一個(gè)特別委員會(huì)尋找同一時(shí)期進(jìn)一步省下1.5萬億美元的辦法。但這對(duì)于一些評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)來講仍然不夠，它們認(rèn)為，美國要維持AAA評(píng)級(jí)，則必須削減支出4萬億美元。

　　Nigel Sillis, Director of Research, Fixed Income & Currency at Baring Asset Management, said the question has become not if the U.S. will be downgraded, but when. All this spells good news for gold.

　　資產(chǎn)管理公司霸菱資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（Baring Asset Management）固定收益與外匯部研究總監(jiān)西利斯(Nigel Sillis)說，問題已經(jīng)不是美國會(huì)不會(huì)被下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)，而是何時(shí)被下調(diào)。對(duì)于黃金來說，這一切都是利好消息。

　　'The possibility of additional quantitative easing in the U.S. and the likelihood that real interest rates will remain negative for some time--at least until 2013--reinforce the attractiveness of gold to investors,' said Caroline Bain, economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

　　《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》信息部(Economist Intelligence Unit)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家貝恩(Caroline Bain)說，美國采取新一輪量化寬松措施的可能性，以及一段時(shí)間內(nèi)（至少在2013年之前）實(shí)際利率繼續(xù)為負(fù)的可能性，強(qiáng)化了黃金對(duì)于投資者的吸引力。

　　The debt saga is undoubtedly set to see a few more twists and turns to come. But it's critical that the markets don't lose sight of why the situation in the U.S. occurred in the first place.

　　圍繞債務(wù)問題展開的曲折爭(zhēng)論，接下來無疑還會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些新的轉(zhuǎn)折。但關(guān)鍵是市場(chǎng)并沒有忘記美國當(dāng)前局勢(shì)一開頭為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

　　'The global financial crisis has simply been transferred from banks to governments, and even the U.S. cannot escape the need for many years of fiscal austerity,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

　　研究公司Capital Economics首席國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)說，很簡(jiǎn)單，全球金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)從銀行轉(zhuǎn)移到政府，即使美國也逃不掉多年緊縮財(cái)政的必要性。

　　With U.S. gross domestic product growth on track to disappoint, as last week's second quarter data showed, equities will struggle to gain ground and Treasury yields will stay low--all of which cushion gold's downside at the very least, and provides plenty of reasons for its ascent at best.

　　在美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值很可能低于預(yù)期（正如上周發(fā)布的二季度數(shù)據(jù)所顯示）的情況下，股市將很難走強(qiáng)，美國國債收益率也會(huì)保持在低水平。這一切至少會(huì)給黃金價(jià)格的下跌形成緩沖，往好的方面說，還有可能為其上漲提供許許多多的理由。