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Cracks are starting to appear in China's drive to build low-income housing as concerns rise that a rush to meet government targets is making for shoddy construction, fears made more intense after a train crash last month highlighted the speed with which China carries out many of its infrastructure projects.
中國(guó)推動(dòng)保障房建設(shè)的行動(dòng)正在出現(xiàn)裂縫。人們?cè)絹?lái)越擔(dān)心,由于趕著實(shí)現(xiàn)政府制訂的目標(biāo),造成建筑質(zhì)量低劣。上個(gè)月發(fā)生的動(dòng)車(chē)事故凸顯了中國(guó)很多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的高速度,也讓這種擔(dān)憂(yōu)進(jìn)一步加劇。
The massive state-led investment was supposed to head off social unrest as urban home prices spiraled out of reach of ordinary workers. And many economists forecast that the spending on cheap housing would cushion the impact on the Chinese economy as the government tried to deflate a bubble at the luxury end of the market.
這項(xiàng)由政府主導(dǎo)的大規(guī)模投資旨在防止社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩,因?yàn)槌鞘蟹績(jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)上漲到普通勞動(dòng)者望塵莫及的水平。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家還預(yù)測(cè),在政府力圖刺破高端房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫之際,投資保障房將為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)起到緩沖作用。
But far from being a magic bullet, the low-income housing push is creating its own problems at a time when a stubbornly high inflation rate is constraining China's ability to spend its way out of another global downturn.
Xinhua/Zuma Press圍繞中國(guó)保障房建設(shè)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)正在加劇。圖為貴陽(yáng)市桐木嶺的廉租房項(xiàng)目。但保障房不是神彈。由于通貨膨脹率居高不下,中國(guó)很難再依靠投資沖出新一輪全球衰退,在這個(gè)時(shí)候,保障房建設(shè)本身制造了一些問(wèn)題。
Premier Wen Jiabao rolled out grand plans in March for 36 million units of public housing as part of China's current five-year plan from 2011 to 2015. But a report by the state-run Xinhua news agency in May raised alarm bells about the plans' progress, saying construction had begun on only 30% of this year's target of 10 million units.
作為中國(guó)當(dāng)前五年規(guī)劃(2011年至2015年)的一部分,國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶在今年3月推出建設(shè)3,600萬(wàn)套保障房的宏偉計(jì)劃。但官方媒體新華社5月份一篇報(bào)道為這一計(jì)劃的進(jìn)展敲響了警鐘。報(bào)道說(shuō),今年1,000萬(wàn)套任務(wù)當(dāng)中,已經(jīng)開(kāi)工的只有30%。
Since then, the push appears to have speeded up. In July, Premier Wen said construction on more than half of the 10 million targeted units had begun.
自那以來(lái),保障房建設(shè)似乎已經(jīng)加速。溫家寶7月份說(shuō),這1,000萬(wàn)套中開(kāi)工的已過(guò)半。
In recent weeks, several reports of shoddy workmanship on low-income housing have appeared in state media, raising concerns about safety and suggesting that the flagship project may have to proceed more slowly than expected.
近幾周,多篇有關(guān)保障房劣質(zhì)工程的報(bào)道見(jiàn)諸官方媒體,引起安全擔(dān)憂(yōu),暗示這個(gè)大項(xiàng)目可能需要按低于預(yù)期的速度推進(jìn)。
“If low-income housing construction is blindly devoted to speed, then like the frequent accidents we've seen recently, problems will keep occurring...and potentially even end in tragedy,” said an article in the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, on July 27.
中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨機(jī)關(guān)報(bào)《人民日?qǐng)?bào)》7月27日一篇文章說(shuō):“如果保障房建設(shè)一味追求速度,蘿卜快了不洗泥,很容易像最近頻頻出事的某些工程,建成后問(wèn)題不斷,甚至發(fā)生事故、釀成悲劇。”
The article appeared just days after the July 23 high-speed train accident that killed 40 people and injured almost 200 near Wenzhou in eastern China. The accident gave rise to a wave of popular anger and accusations that the new rail network had been developed too quickly and without enough focus on quality and safety.
這篇文章發(fā)表之前數(shù)日的7月23日,溫州附近發(fā)生了造成40人死亡、近200人受傷的動(dòng)車(chē)事故。事故引起一片民憤,公眾譴責(zé)說(shuō),新的鐵路系統(tǒng)建設(shè)過(guò)快,對(duì)質(zhì)量和安全重視不足。
The People's Daily article didn't specifically mention the train crash. China has also been plagued by a spate of fatalities on major construction projects this year.
《人民日?qǐng)?bào)》文章沒(méi)有特別提到這起動(dòng)車(chē)事故。今年中國(guó)還發(fā)生過(guò)多起重大建設(shè)項(xiàng)目致人死亡的事故。
A recent statement on the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called on officials to “draw hard lessons from the July 23 Wenzhou rail accident, and ensure the safe construction and quality management of low-income housing and public works.”
中國(guó)住房和城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)部近期在其網(wǎng)站上的一份公告中要求各級(jí)官員“深刻吸取“7•23”甬溫線動(dòng)車(chē)追尾等事故教訓(xùn),做好保障性住房和市政工程的建設(shè)安全生產(chǎn)和質(zhì)量管理。”
The concerns surrounding the low-income housing push adds to worries over the outlook for the Chinese economy, and by extension the global economy, which is heavily dependent on China for growth. On Tuesday, China reported unexpectedly high consumer inflation of 6.5% in July, its highest level in over three years, and faster than the 6.4% year-on-year level in June.
籠罩在推動(dòng)保障房建設(shè)上的憂(yōu)慮使中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、甚至全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的前景更令人擔(dān)憂(yōu),因?yàn)槿蚪?jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)于中國(guó)。周二,中國(guó)公布7月份消費(fèi)者通脹指數(shù)意外達(dá)到6.5%,是三年來(lái)的最高水平,高于6月份6.4%的同比增幅。
In 2008, Beijing helped support a faltering global economy by unleashing a wave of bank lending that fueled China's construction industry─and commodity exporters everywhere. Now, with global markets buckling under concerns of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and sovereign-debt woes in Europe, China's high inflation means it can't perform a similar trick without watching prices shoot up further.
2008年,中國(guó)實(shí)施了一輪刺激建筑業(yè)的銀行借貸,幫助支撐了衰退中的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)以及各大宗商品出口國(guó)。現(xiàn)在,全球市場(chǎng)因?qū)γ绹?guó)出現(xiàn)雙底衰退及歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)問(wèn)題的擔(dān)憂(yōu)而不堪重負(fù),而高通脹意味著中國(guó)不能無(wú)視物價(jià)進(jìn)一步飆升而再次表演類(lèi)似戲法。
Finding the cash to fund low-income housing developments is also proving problematic, with local governments cash-strapped from their recent infrastructure building binge, and banks, already constrained in their lending, preferring to give loans to higher-margin projects.
為保障房建設(shè)尋找資金也是問(wèn)題重重,地方政府因近期大量進(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)而資金緊張,同時(shí),借貸已經(jīng)受到抑制的銀行則更愿意將貸款提供給利潤(rùn)率更高的項(xiàng)目。
On Tuesday, Tan Huajie, the board secretary of China Vanke Co., the country's largest property developer by market share, said that the tighter liquidity in the sector was discouraging investment. Vanke saw first-half profit rise 5.9%, a better performance that many of its peers. Analysts say Vanke's relative success compared with its peers─its first-half profit rose 5.9%─is partly due to its focus on selling small and midsize homes in China's less-developed cities, a market segment only recently affected by government restrictions on lending.
周二,中國(guó)萬(wàn)科集團(tuán)董事會(huì)秘書(shū)譚華杰說(shuō),房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)流動(dòng)性緊縮正在打消投資信心。萬(wàn)科是按市場(chǎng)份額計(jì)算中國(guó)最大的房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商。萬(wàn)科上半年利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)5.9%,表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于許多同行。分析師說(shuō),萬(wàn)科相對(duì)于其他同行的成功,即上半年利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)5.9%,部分是由于萬(wàn)科集中在中國(guó)欠發(fā)達(dá)城市銷(xiāo)售中小戶(hù)型房屋。政府最近才開(kāi)始對(duì)這部分市場(chǎng)的借貸進(jìn)行限制。
Developers are chafing at thin margins for low-income housing. Vanke President Yu Liang said that his company has started construction on more than three million square meters of public housing, but that the profit margin on those developments is only 2%. Analysts say the profit margin for developers on a typical residential development is about 30%.
開(kāi)發(fā)商對(duì)保障房的薄利感到頭疼。萬(wàn)科總裁郁亮說(shuō),公司已經(jīng)開(kāi)始建設(shè)300多萬(wàn)平米的保障房,但這些房屋的利潤(rùn)率只有2%。分析師說(shuō),開(kāi)發(fā)商在一個(gè)一般性住宅開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目上的利潤(rùn)率在30%左右。
Mr. Yu said Vanke would continue to contribute to the public good as long as it didn't hurt shareholders' interests.
郁亮說(shuō),只要不損害股東的利益,萬(wàn)科會(huì)繼續(xù)為公共福利做貢獻(xiàn)。
Some analysts say that local governments are inflating the numbers of low-income housing they are bringing online by including university dormitories and refurbished older buildings.
一些分析師說(shuō),地方政府抬高了網(wǎng)上統(tǒng)計(jì)的保障房數(shù)字,大學(xué)宿舍和翻新的老房子也被包含在內(nèi)。
安卓版本:8.7.30 蘋(píng)果版本:8.7.30
開(kāi)發(fā)者:北京正保會(huì)計(jì)科技有限公司
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