A few years ago in Hong Kong I met a furniture manufacturer from South Carolina who had outsourced production to China and then been crushed by his Chinese partners, who bumped him aside and started selling directly to the U.S. market.

　　幾年前我在香港遇到一位來自美國南卡羅來納州的家具制造商，他把生產外包給中國企業(yè)，后來卻遭到了中國合作伙伴的“背叛”：合作伙伴將他撇在了一邊，直接向美國市場銷售產品。

　　He no doubt would be intrigued to see the tide turning again today.

　　如果今天看到這股趨勢再次改變，他毫無疑問會迷惑不已。

　　In the Great Game of global wage and cost arbitrage, bits of some rather surprising industries are drifting back to U.S. shores, and the pace could quicken. Furniture making─usually labor intensive and low-skilled─is just one shocker. On Tuesday Ford said it will build some auto parts in the U.S. that have traditionally been sourced in China. And there's more.

　　在全球尋找工資和成本優(yōu)勢的偉大博弈中，一些行業(yè)正相當令人吃驚地退回到美國本土，并且這一步伐可能加快。家具制造業(yè)（通常是技術含量較低的勞動密集型產業(yè)）只是其中一個令人震驚的行業(yè)。周二，福特汽車公司（Ford）宣布將在美國本土制造某些汽車零部件，這些業(yè)務通常是外包給中國企業(yè)的。類似這樣的例子還有很多。

　　Currency hawks in Congress are this week promoting legislation to penalize China for manipulating the yuan. They might want to take note of this trend: The jobs they want to bring home may already be trickling back to the U.S.─emphasis on the trickle.

　　本周，美國國會中匯率問題上的強硬派正在推進一項懲罰中國操縱人民幣匯率的法案。他們可能已經留意到了這一趨勢：他們想為美國重新創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機會已經在緩緩流入美國──請注意，重點是“緩緩流入”。

　　Bruce Cochrane is emblematic of the incipient shift. He's opening a furniture factory in Lincolnton, N.C., a rare event in a region and industry that have been walloped by outsourcing. Employment in U.S. furniture factories fell by 60% over the last decade.

　　科克倫（Bruce Cochrane）就是剛剛出現的這股生產轉移趨勢中的典型。他正在美國北卡羅來納州的林肯頓開設一家家具廠。對于林肯頓地區(qū)和受外包嚴重沖擊的家具制造業(yè)來說，此舉實屬罕見。過去10年中，美國家具廠的就業(yè)人數減少了60%。

　　Mr. Cochrane says furniture made in China and sold in the U.S. previously had a price advantage of up to 50%. That's often down to 10% to 15% now, in part because wages in China are soaring─up 15% or more a year in some locales. Shipping costs, he says, have doubled from a few years ago.

　　科克倫說，以前在中國制造在美國銷售的家具的價格優(yōu)勢曾高達50%，現在這一優(yōu)勢只剩下10%至15%，部分原因是中國的工資水平大幅上升，某些地區(qū)一年的漲幅高達15%或以上。科克倫說，和幾年前相比，運輸成本也增長了一倍。

　　“About 2006 I saw a pivot point, especially with labor costs,” says Mr. Cochrane, who has spent time in China.

　　  賽金說，這些類別的產品現在在中國制造可能更便宜。但隨著勞動力、原料和運輸成本上漲，優(yōu)勢將會在四年左右的時間里倒向美國。 

　　Hal Sirkin of Boston Consulting Group has identified seven industry categories that are most susceptible to relocating production aimed at the U.S. market (production for the Chinese market would stay chiefly in China). They are furniture, transportation goods, computers and electronics, electrical equipment and appliances, plastics and rubber products, machinery, and fabricated metal products.

　　相關閱讀波士頓咨詢公司（Boston Consulting Group）的賽金（Hal Sirkin）指出七個最容易因針對美國市場遷移生產而受影響的工業(yè)類別（針對中國市場的生產會主要駐扎在中國）。它們是家具、運輸商品、電腦和電子產品、電氣設備和電器、塑料和橡膠制品、機械以及金屬制品。

　　In a study he's releasing Friday, Mr. Sirkin calculates that production that returns to the U.S. could add 800,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, and up to three million altogether if service-sector support jobs are included.

　　賽金在周五發(fā)布的一份研究報告中推算，回到美國的生產可能會為制造業(yè)增加80萬個就業(yè)機會，如果算上服務業(yè)后勤類崗位，總數將會高達300萬。

　　There have been optimistic prognostications of this sort in the past that fell flat. But a number of forces at work today suggest that this time could indeed be different. 

　　過去這類樂觀的預言遭遇過失敗。但如今多種起作用的力量表明，這次可能的確不同以往。

　　Among the forces: those ever-rising costs in China; more flexibility from some U.S. unions, resulting in fewer work rules and lower labor costs; more subsidies from some state governments; far higher productivity in the U.S.; and pressure from retailers to shorten turnaround time and cut inventories, prompting more manufacturers to abandon long supply chains to China.

　　 這些因素有：中國不斷提高的生產成本；由于美國一些工會變得更有靈活性，美國的工作條例得以簡化，勞動力成本出現下降；美國一些州的政府向企業(yè)提供了更多補貼；美國的勞動生產率遠高于中國；美國零售商為縮短貨物周轉時間和削減庫存而給生產商施加的壓力，這一壓力促使更多生產商放棄因將生產轉移至中國而導致的長供應鏈。

　　And the yuan. After considerable jawboning by governments around the world, Beijing has allowed its currency to rise roughly 30% against the dollar since 2005. Since a stronger yuan makes China's exports more expensive in foreign markets, that's bad for U.S. manufacturers who serve their global customers from factories in China─and for U.S. consumers hooked on cheap Chinese products.

　　 還有人民幣因素。在世界各國政府就人民幣匯率問題發(fā)出大量呼吁后，北京自2005年以來已允許人民幣兌美元升值了約30%。由于人民幣升值會提高中國產品在海外市場的售價，這對那些用在華工廠的產品供應全球客戶的美國制造商是壞消息，對已經離不開中國廉價產品的美國消費者也不是好事。

　　But for those who want to reclaim production to U.S. shores, it's a plus.

　　但對于那些想把生產業(yè)務遷回美國的企業(yè)來說，這卻是件好事。

　　“We're in the process of bringing everything back from China,” says David Gil, marketing director for Sleek Audio, which makes high-end tunable earphones. Along with rising costs in China, quality control proved a headache.

　　Sleek Audio是一家生產高端可調諧耳機的企業(yè)，其營銷總監(jiān)吉爾（David Gil）說，該公司正在把所有在華生產業(yè)務遷回美國。中國除了生產成本不斷提高外，質量控制也是個令人頭疼的問題。

　　The company sells its SA Six earphones for $250, and the price won't change when production moves to Palmetto, Fla., though costs will rise about 20%. Mark Krywko, the chief executive, says better quality control and less lost inventory will offset those increases. “Profits will go up,” he says.

　　該公司每副SA Six耳機的售價是250美元，在公司將生產業(yè)務遷回美國佛羅里達州后，耳機的售價不會改變，但生產成本將增加20%。該公司首席執(zhí)行長克里科（Mark Krywko）說，質量控制的改善和庫存損耗的降低將抵消生產成本的上升。他說，公司的利潤將會增加。

　　No one in North Carolina's furniture industry, meanwhile, is expecting a return to the flush times. Patricia Bowling of the American Home Furnishings Alliance, the furniture makers' trade group, says some companies that kept production in the U.S. are seeing an uptick in demand because of the rising cost of imports. But she says new factories like Mr. Cochrane's are rare indeed. 

　　不過，在美國北卡羅來納州的家具行業(yè)，沒人認為過往的繁盛時光會再回來。美國家具生產商行業(yè)組織美國家居用品聯盟（American Home Furnishings Alliance）的鮑齡（Patricia Bowling）說，一些堅持在美國生產的企業(yè)正在看到市場需求上升的好苗頭，因為進口家具的成本在不斷升高。但她說，像科克倫那樣在美國開設新家具廠的情況卻很少見。

　　As for Mr. Cochrane, he's buying state-of-the-art saws, routers and other machinery for his facility, exemplifying why productivity is robust in the U.S.

　　  說到科克倫，他正為自己在美國的工廠購買最新式的鋸、刨和其他機械設備，這恰好說明了美國工廠的勞動生產率為什么會那么高。

　　The flip side, though, is employment. When North Carolina's newest furniture factory is up and running, Mr. Cochrane expects to accomplish with 135 employes what it took 250 to do in the past.

　　但這一現象的另一面則是美國工廠雇傭人數的下降。科克倫預計，當他在北卡羅來納州最新開設的工廠投產后，該廠只需135名員工就能干過去需要250人完成的工作。