不靠譜的股票分析師（雙語(yǔ)）

來(lái)源: 互聯(lián)網(wǎng) 編輯： 2011/03/24 14:49:36　　字體：大小

　　It's the time of year when brokers are likely to offer you their top stock recommendations for the new year.

　　每年的這個(gè)時(shí)候，股票經(jīng)紀(jì)往往都會(huì)列出他們作為新年推薦的優(yōu)選股。

　　'These are the stocks to own in 2011,' they'll say. 'They're the ones our analysts recommend most strongly right now.' Then they'll tell you all sorts of compelling reasons their analysts love the stocks, possibly coupled with impressive 'price targets' for the year.

　　他們會(huì)說(shuō)，這些是2011年的必持股票，是我們的分析師當(dāng)前最強(qiáng)烈推薦的。然后他們會(huì)告訴你分析師鍾愛(ài)這些股票的一大堆極具說(shuō)服力的理由，可能還會(huì)配上讓人印象深刻的年內(nèi)“目標(biāo)價(jià)”。

　　Should you take their advice?

　　你該接受這些建議嗎？

　　Before you do, take a look at how their recommendations fared last year. And the years before that.

　　在接受之前，看看他們?nèi)ツ晖扑]的那些股票表現(xiàn)如何吧。還有前年的。

　　I thought I'd do just that.

　　我想我肯定會(huì)這么做的。

　　So I contacted Thomson Reuters, which tracks the recommendations of Wall Street analysts.

　　于是我聯(lián)系了湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)，他們對(duì)華爾街分析師推薦的股票進(jìn)行跟蹤。

　　I asked them for the 10 stocks that analysts rated most highly a year ago. That meant the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index with the most 'buy' and 'strong buy' recommendations, the fewest 'sells' (let alone 'strong sells') and the best average rating overall.

　　我讓他們列出10只分析師一年前評(píng)價(jià)最高的股票。也就是說(shuō)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成份股中獲得“買(mǎi)進(jìn)”和“強(qiáng)烈買(mǎi)進(jìn)”推薦最多、“賣(mài)出”最少（“強(qiáng)烈賣(mài)出”就不用提了），以及整體平均評(píng)級(jí)最佳的股票。

　　These stocks were the cool kids on the Street. The ones everyone wanted to hang with. The stocks that fund managers brag about owning when they're at the squash club.

　　這些股票是華爾街的“酷孩子”。所有人都想擁有它們。當(dāng)它們還泯然于眾時(shí)基金經(jīng)理們就大吹大擂說(shuō)要持有。

　　The names ranged from chemical company FMC and printer R.R. Donnelley & Sons to tobacco company Lorillard.

　　這些股票從化學(xué)品公司FMC、印刷公司R.R. Donnelley & Sons到煙草公司Lorillard，不一而足。

　　How did they do?

　　它們表現(xiàn)如何呢？

　　Not bad. If you'd invested $1,000 in each one a year ago, your $10,000 stake would have grown to nearly $12,400 today .

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