There is no bigger question hanging over global markets than the resilience of China's economic growth. Yet the tea leaves are especially difficult to read right now.

　　對全球市場來說，一個最大的問題是中國經(jīng)濟增長的復原力。然而，眼下中國經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)卻尤其讓人一頭霧水。

　　On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics will release gross-domestic-product growth figures for the first quarter of 2011. Markets already take the government's official data with a grain of salt. The timing of China's New Year, which often messes with first-quarter figures, could cast even more doubt on the usefulness of this particular release.

　　 Bloomberg News二月份，在中國山東省濟寧市，一名工人在倍耐力輪胎廠整理橡膠帶。本周五，中國國家統(tǒng)計局將公布2011年一季度國內生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速數(shù)據(jù)。市場已經(jīng)對政府官方數(shù)據(jù)普遍表示懷疑。常常會影響一季度數(shù)據(jù)的春節(jié)則讓人更加質疑即將發(fā)布的一季度數(shù)據(jù)是否準確。

　　Economists expect the figures to show GDP expanding 9.5% from a year earlier, in line with the prior two quarters though a slowing from the nearly 12% growth rate of early 2010. Still, that relatively strong pace should arrest some fears of a "hard landing" in China as the nation ratchets up its inflation-fighting efforts. The central bank just raised benchmark interest rates for the fourth time in as many months.

　　經(jīng)濟學家們預計，數(shù)據(jù)將顯示GDP同比增長9.5%，與此前兩個季度增速相仿，不過較2010年年初12%的增速有所放緩。盡管如此，在中國加大遏制通脹的力度之際，這一相對強勁的增速應該能從一定程度上消除人們對中國發(fā)生硬著陸的擔心。中國央行此前剛剛上調了基準利率，是數(shù)月來的第四次加息。

　　The data won't extinguish slowdown worries entirely, however. Indeed, separate reports show consumer confidence is at its weakest in a decade. The nation just recorded its first quarterly trade deficit in seven years, but that has as much to do with the higher cost of commodity prices as with stronger demand.

　　不過，數(shù)據(jù)不會徹底消除對經(jīng)濟放緩的擔憂。實際上，其他報告顯示，消費者信心處于10年來的最低水平。中國剛剛公布七年來首次出現(xiàn)的季度貿(mào)易逆差，不過這是大宗商品價格上漲和需求增強雙重作用的結果。

　　Meanwhile, other economic reports have been mixed. Industrial-production growth has accelerated, but the government changed those figures this year to exclude smaller firms. Concrete production and freight transported by rail have separately edged down. HSBC's manufacturing index dropped in February and stayed low in March.

　　 與此同時，其他經(jīng)濟報告喜憂參半。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增速加快，不過政府今年調整了統(tǒng)計方法，沒有將較小的企業(yè)包括在內。混凝土產(chǎn)量和鐵路貨運量均有所下滑。2月份匯豐(HSBC)制造業(yè)指數(shù)下降，3月份依然處于低位。

　　For that reason, the highlight of Friday's release may be the appearance for the first time of an official number for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Presenting the quarterly change in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate is already the basis for official figures in most other countries, including the U.S. It also better captures changes in the economy's momentum, which markets are desperate to gauge.

　　 因此，周五數(shù)據(jù)公布的亮點可能是首次出現(xiàn)官方季度環(huán)比數(shù)據(jù)。將GDP的季度變化以經(jīng)季節(jié)調整的年率化形式表達出來，這已經(jīng)是包括美國在內的大部分其他國家的官方數(shù)據(jù)的基礎了。這還可以更好地體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟勢頭的變化，而經(jīng)濟勢頭的變化是市場急于把握的。

　　Yet the consumer-price index separately out Friday could yet be the headline-grabber. It is expected to push above 5% year-on-year growth in March from 4.9% in February. The higher it goes, the more aggressive the government will likely have to be with interest rates. And that would cast an even bigger question mark over the sustainability of China's impressive growth.

　　然而，周五還將出爐的消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)有可能成為關注的焦點。預計3月份CPI同比漲幅將超過5%，而2月份為4.9%。CPI越高，政府加息的力度可能就必須越大。這將給中國快速增長的持續(xù)能力打上一個更大的問號。