The last time US unemployment hit double figures was in the early 1980s, when one of the hit films was Red Dawn, a tale of a frustrated Soviet invasion of Colorado that played on the economic insecurity of the time.

　　上次美國失業(yè)率達(dá)到兩位數(shù)水平是在上世紀(jì)80年代初，當(dāng)時有部熱映影片《赤色黎明》(Red Dawn)，講述的是蘇聯(lián)入侵科羅拉多遭遇失敗的故事，反映了人們的經(jīng)濟(jì)不安全感。

　　With the number of people out of work hovering around the same level again, Red Dawn is being dusted off for a remake. Except this time it is the Chinese, not the Soviets, who are the baddies. The film begins with the Chinese army taking over Detroit.

　　隨著美國失業(yè)率再度徘徊在兩位數(shù)水平，人們把《赤色黎明》翻了出來重拍。只是這次反派人物從蘇聯(lián)人換成了中國人。在影片開頭，中國軍隊(duì)占領(lǐng)了底特律。

　　In such a climate it should come as no surprise that China’s currency is becoming a hot-button political issue again.

　　在這樣的環(huán)境下，中國匯率再度成為熱門政治議題就不足為奇了。

　　Barack Obama, president, recently intensified his calls for China to revalue its currency, arguing that more exports to Asia would mean “hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of jobs here in the US”.

　　美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)最近以更強(qiáng)硬姿態(tài)呼吁中國讓人民幣升值，他提出，對亞洲的出口增加，將意味著“美國幾十萬，甚至幾百萬的就業(yè)崗位”。

　　An estimate by the Peterson Institute of International Economics that the renminbi is undervalued by 41 per cent against the dollar was widely picked up in the US, adding to the popular view that China has a large and unfair advantage coming out of the crisis.

　　彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)估計(jì)，人民幣兌美元匯率被低估了41%。這個數(shù)字在美國得到廣泛認(rèn)可，增強(qiáng)了以下流行觀點(diǎn)：中國在擺脫危機(jī)時擁有巨大的不公平優(yōu)勢。

　　Financial markets are also buzzing with speculation that China is about to make a currency move. Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist and “Brics” guru, caused a stir last week when he said “something is brewing in Beijing”.

　　金融市場也在風(fēng)傳，中國即將采取匯率行動。高盛(Goldman Sachs)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、“金磚四國”權(quán)威吉姆?奧尼爾(Jim O’Neill)上周表示，“北京正在醞釀著什么”。此言引起了轟動。

　　This is not the place to rehearse the arguments about appreciation, other than to say that they are becoming stronger as Chinese inflation rises. And the Peterson Institute was not actually recommending a 41 per cent appreciation, but only trying to put a number on the level of undervaluation. Most economists expect only a very modest increase in the value of the renminbi.

　　這里不是要再排演一場升值辯論，而只是說，隨著中國通脹上升，升值的理由正變得越來越充足。彼得森研究所也不是真的建議升值41%，而只是試圖用數(shù)字來表示低估的程度。多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，人民幣只會非常小幅度地升值。

　　Yet it is worth pointing out that a revaluation of that level would actually exacerbate the very fears behind a film such as the new Red Dawn. Aimed at levelling the playing field, it could instead change the way many people think about China.

　　 但是值得指出的是，如果人民幣升值41%，實(shí)際上會加重潛藏在新《赤色黎明》等影片背后的恐慌。讓人民幣升值本意是為了營造公平的競爭環(huán)境，但結(jié)果反而可能改變很多人看待中國的目光。

　　The Chinese economy is currently the third largest in the world measured in dollar terms, just behind Japan. A 41 per cent appreciation in the renminbi would catapult China way beyond Japan and leave it half the size of the US. When Mr O’Neill forecast that China would overtake the US by 2027, some scoffed. All of a sudden those guestimates would start to look a lot more on the money.

　　按美元計(jì)算，中國目前是全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，僅次于日本。如果人民幣升值41%，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將驟增至美國的一半，遙遙領(lǐng)先于日本。奧尼爾當(dāng)初預(yù)測中國經(jīng)濟(jì)到2027年將超過美國時，一些人嗤之以鼻。突然之間，這些推測將開始更加注重人民幣匯率的因素。

　　The US dwarfs China in spending on research and on its military and will do so for years to come. But after a big revaluation, China’s budgets in these areas would be equivalent to about a quarter of those in the US – enough to seem like a real competitive threat.

　　美國的研發(fā)和軍事開支讓中國相形見絀，在今后許多年內(nèi)，這種狀況不會改變。但如果人民幣大幅升值，中國在這些方面的預(yù)算將相當(dāng)于美國的四分之一左右——看上去足以構(gòu)成真正的競爭威脅。

　　One of the things that would not change is the value of China’s mammoth foreign exchange reserves, which have been the subject of so much misplaced angst about Beijing becoming the US’s banker. But what about China’s commercial banks? ICBC was already the biggest bank in the world last year by market capitalisation: after a 40 per cent currency appreciation its mainland shares would give it a market value double that of JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank. PetroChina would be one and a half times the size of ExxonMobil. No prizes for guessing what US investment bankers would be telling Chinese companies.

　　有一件事不會改變，那就是中國巨額外匯儲備的價值。這些儲備引發(fā)了對于中國將成為美國財(cái)產(chǎn)儲蓄機(jī)構(gòu)的不必要擔(dān)憂。但中國的商業(yè)銀行呢？中國工商銀行(ICBC)去年就已是全球市值最大的銀行。如果人民幣升值41%，該行在中國內(nèi)地的股份將使其市值達(dá)到美國最大銀行摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的兩倍。中石油(PetroChina)的市值將是?？松梨?ExxonMobil)的1.5倍。不用猜也知道美國投資銀行家會跟中國企業(yè)說些什么。

　　By this stage, economists are probably grumbling that exchange rates only reflect relative prices and that a big appreciation would not give the Chinese government a single renminbi more to spend on scientists or soldiers.

　　在現(xiàn)階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們大概會說，匯率只反映相對價格，即使人民幣大幅升值，中國政府也不會在科學(xué)家或士兵身上多花一塊錢。

　　But there is a bigger point. When some of the more extravagant claims about “China’s century” are made, plenty of people – myself included – often point to the many obstacles ahead and stress how poor a country China still is. Yet maybe the fact that the currency has been kept so artificially low has obscured just how far China has already come.

　　但還有更重要的一點(diǎn)。當(dāng)一些有關(guān)“中國世紀(jì)”的更宏大猜測出爐時，包括我在內(nèi)的許多人常常會提到未來面臨的諸多障礙，以及中國仍是一個多么貧窮的國家。然而，人民幣被人為大幅低估的事實(shí)，或許掩蓋了中國真正的崛起程度。

　　The revamped Red Dawn says something about the anxieties that China is already provoking. With a stronger currency China would loom even larger in the US consciousness. It would reinforce the perception that China is not just a rival for the distant future but is swiftly becoming an economic and military match for the US.

　　翻拍的《赤色黎明》體現(xiàn)了中國已經(jīng)造成的焦慮。隨著人民幣走強(qiáng)，中國在美國的意識中將進(jìn)一步放大。它也將加強(qiáng)人們的以下觀點(diǎn)：對美國來說，中國不僅是遙遠(yuǎn)未來的對手，而且中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事實(shí)力正在迅速趕上美國。

　　The phrase “be careful what you ask for” works as well in Chinese as in English.

　　英文警句“當(dāng)心你想要的成了真”(Be careful what you ask for)，放在中文里也同樣適用。