Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Indonesian president, has launched a national drive to encourage his countrymen to grow their own chilli peppers. The South Korean government has released emergency supplies of cabbage, pork, mackerel, radish and other staples as part of President Lee Myung-bak’s war on inflation. This week, the Indian cabinet met to discuss the soaring price of onions, an issue reputed to have caused the downfall of two previous administrations. As in 2007-08, the topic of food inflation – even food security – has percolated to the very top of the political agenda.

　　印尼總統(tǒng)蘇西洛·班邦·尤多約諾(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)已向全國發(fā)出呼吁，鼓勵(lì)民眾自行種植紅辣椒。韓國政府動(dòng)用了卷心菜、豬肉、鯖魚、蘿卜及其它日常食品的應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備，這是韓國總統(tǒng)李明博(Lee Myung-bak)抵御通脹的努力之一。印度內(nèi)閣日前也召開會(huì)議，討論洋蔥價(jià)格飆升的問題——人們普遍認(rèn)為，正是這一問題導(dǎo)致了之前兩屆政府的下臺(tái)。與2007-08年一樣，有關(guān)食品通脹甚至是食品安全的話題，已經(jīng)成為各國政府的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。

　　The spectre of inflation has rattled investors. India’s stock market has fallen 5 percent since the start of the year. Indonesian shares, among the world’s best performers in 2010, have slid 7 per cent in a few days. Central banks are caught in a bind. Bank Indonesia, citing concerns that higher interest rates could attract more inflows of hot money, last week left rates unchanged for the 17th month in a row. That has prompted concerns that Indonesia’s monetary-policy horse might be clopping along far behind the inflationary cart.

　　通脹“幽靈”令投資者惶惶不安。新年伊始，印度股市已下跌5%。2010年的表現(xiàn)在全球名列前茅的印尼股市，數(shù)日之內(nèi)也已跌去7%。各國央行都陷入了困境。印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)上周決定維持利率不變，這也是該行連續(xù)第17個(gè)月維持利率不變，原因是擔(dān)心上調(diào)利率會(huì)吸引更多的熱錢流入。這不禁讓人們擔(dān)憂，印尼的貨幣政策可能正遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)滯后于通脹增速。

　　In China, too, higher food prices are feeding inflation, which scaled 5 percent in November, well above the official 3 per cent target. One of the unorthodox countermeasures taken by Chinese authorities has been to allow vegetable trucks to travel toll-free on highways – a sort of quantitative easing for carrots and aubergines.

　　中國亦是如此。食品價(jià)格的上漲正加劇通脹——中國去年11月份通脹率達(dá)到5%，遠(yuǎn)高于3%的官方目標(biāo)。中國政府采取了一系列非常規(guī)對(duì)策，其中之一是允許蔬菜運(yùn)輸車輛免繳高速公路通行費(fèi)——這某種程度上相當(dāng)于對(duì)蘿卜和茄子施行定量寬松。

　　Beyond the immediate inflationary anxieties, the real question is whether high food prices are here to stay. Many investors are betting that rising living standards across the emerging world, particularly in China and India – with 2.5bn people between them – will exert long-term upward pressure on the cost of food.

　　除了迫在眉睫的通脹焦慮，真正的問題在于食品價(jià)格高企的局面是否會(huì)持續(xù)下去。許多投資者正押注于整個(gè)新興世界（尤其是總?cè)丝谶_(dá)25億的中國和印度）生活水準(zhǔn)的日益提升、將對(duì)食品成本構(gòu)成長期上行壓力。

　　Nearly three years ago, when food-price rises sparked riots in several poor countries, Robert Feldman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, put out a note called “Buy Chicken!!” Since poultry has a far lower “feed conversion rate” than pigs or cows, he said, it was more economical. As more people ate meat, he predicted, the economics of chicken would speak (perhaps cluck) for itself. In similar vein, Nomura last September published a report called “The coming surge in food prices”, in which it built an investment strategy around fertiliser producers, farm-machinery makers and assorted shippers and storers of food.

　　近3年前，好幾個(gè)窮國因食品價(jià)格上漲而爆發(fā)騷亂。當(dāng)時(shí)，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特·費(fèi)爾德曼(Robert Feldman)發(fā)布了一份名為《購買雞肉》(Buy Chicken!!)的報(bào)告。他表示，由于家禽的“飼料轉(zhuǎn)化率”遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于豬或牛，因此更為經(jīng)濟(jì)。他還預(yù)測(cè)，隨著更多的人吃肉，雞肉的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益會(huì)不言（也許要說“鳴”）而喻。野村(Nomura)去年9月份也發(fā)布了一份類似的報(bào)告，題為“食品價(jià)格即將飆升”(The coming surge in food prices)。在報(bào)告中，野村提出了一個(gè)圍繞著化肥生產(chǎn)商、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械制造商、以及形形色色的食品運(yùn)輸商和儲(chǔ)備者的投資戰(zhàn)略。

　　One possible response to the question about the likelihood of a structural rise in food prices is: let’s hope so. Higher prices would partly reflect greater demand from the billion-plus people in the world who are still poorly nourished. As Amartya Sen, India’s Nobel prize-winning economist, points out, too many Indians remain ill-fed. By some estimates, no fewer than half the country’s children are malnourished. If the 500m or so Indians living in poverty today began to eat half-decently, that alone would have a substantial impact on food demand.

　　對(duì)于目前食品價(jià)格的上漲有多大可能是結(jié)構(gòu)性的問題，一個(gè)可能的回應(yīng)是：期望如此。漲價(jià)在一定程度上反映出，全球逾十億營養(yǎng)不良人口的需求有所提升。正如印度諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)獲得者阿瑪?shù)賮?森(Amartya Sen)所指出的，目前仍有太多印度人營養(yǎng)不良。一些人估計(jì)，該國至少有半數(shù)的兒童營養(yǎng)不良。如果眼下仍生活在貧困線以下的約5億印度人開始吃得像樣一些，僅此一點(diǎn)，就會(huì)對(duì)食品需求產(chǎn)生重大影響。

　　Of course, as Thomas Malthus famously underestimated, rising demand for food is not bad so long as supply keeps pace. Between 1965 and 1998, the global population rose from 3.3bn to 5.9bn, but real food prices actually fell.

　　當(dāng)然，只要供應(yīng)跟得上，食品需求不斷上漲并非壞事，而眾所周知，托馬斯·馬爾薩斯(Thomas Malthus)對(duì)這一點(diǎn)估計(jì)不足。1965年至1998年間，全球人口從33億激增至59億，但實(shí)際食品價(jià)格實(shí)際上有所下降。

　　In China, periodic bouts of food inflation notwithstanding, farm production has kept up with the rising demand. Despite the fact that its people consume more calories and more grain-intensive meat, China has remained a net food exporter, says Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS. It has done a good job of improving yields through better irrigation, use of fertiliser and land reform to encourage the creation of bigger farms. Agricultural production has risen in spite of the fact that some farmland has been lost to urbanisation. Today’s global food-price increases are more the result of a supply shock caused by fires in Russia and floods in Australia than by a sudden surge in demand from China – or anywhere else.

　　在中國，盡管不時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)食品通脹，但農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)一直跟得上日漸上漲的需求。瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家喬納森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示，雖然中國人消耗的卡路里和大量耗費(fèi)谷物的肉類有所增加，但中國仍是一個(gè)食品凈出口國。中國通過更好的灌溉、化肥使用以及鼓勵(lì)農(nóng)田合并的土地改革，大幅提高了產(chǎn)出。盡管城市化過程吞沒了許多耕地，但農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有所提升。目前全球食品價(jià)格上漲，更大程度上是由于俄羅斯大火和澳大利亞水災(zāi)造成的供應(yīng)緊張，而非中國或其它哪個(gè)國家的需求突然激增。

　　Nor are high prices necessarily harmful. For one thing, they can help to transfer wealth from more affluent cities to the generally poorer countryside. In theory, higher prices should also encourage investment in farming and related infrastructure, increasing output.

　　食品價(jià)格高企也不一定就是壞事。首先，這有利于財(cái)富從相對(duì)較富裕的城市、轉(zhuǎn)移到普遍較貧窮的農(nóng)村。從理論上講，價(jià)格上漲還應(yīng)該會(huì)促進(jìn)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)及相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資，由此增加產(chǎn)出。

　　Food, unlike hydrocarbons, is a renewable resource. But land, water and energy – farming requirements all – are finite. Fish stocks, though replenishable, can be exhausted. Yoichi Funabashi, a Japanese foreign policy expert, says the underlying cause of last year’s diplomatic clash between China and Japan over disputed islands was a struggle for marine protein.

　　與碳?xì)浠衔锊煌?，糧食是可再生資源。但作為農(nóng)耕必要條件的土地、水和能源卻是有限的。漁業(yè)資源盡管可再生，卻有可能耗盡。日本外交政策專家船橋洋一(Yoichi Funabashi)表示，去年中日兩國就爭議島嶼發(fā)生外交沖突，根本原因是為了爭奪漁業(yè)資源。

　　The biggest constraint to ever-higher production may be energy, the proximate cause of the 2007-08 food-price shock. The more modern farming becomes, the more heavily it relies on hydrocarbons in the form of fertiliser, as well as fuel for tractors and transport. In the words of John Gray, a British political philosopher: “Intensive agriculture is the extraction of food from petroleum.”

　　制約產(chǎn)出不斷提高最主要的因素可能要算是能源——能源也是導(dǎo)致2007——08年食品價(jià)格危機(jī)的直接原因。農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展得越現(xiàn)代化，對(duì)化肥、以及拖拉機(jī)和運(yùn)輸工具燃料等碳?xì)浠衔锏囊蕾嚦潭染驮礁摺Ｓ糜握軐W(xué)家約翰?格雷(John Gray)的話講：“集約農(nóng)業(yè)就是從石油中開采糧食。”

　　That is borne out by a recent curiosity. Research by two economists at the International Monetary Fund finds a close correlation between the price of oil and fine wine. What is true for wine will hold for rice, wheat, potatoes and onions. If the growth of India and China is destined permanently to inflate the cost of energy, it’s a pretty safe bet it will have the same effect on the cost of food.

　　最近一項(xiàng)新發(fā)現(xiàn)證實(shí)了這一點(diǎn)。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，油價(jià)與高檔酒價(jià)格之間存在緊密關(guān)聯(lián)。油價(jià)與大米、小麥、土豆和洋蔥的價(jià)格之間亦是如此。如果印度和中國的增長必然會(huì)不斷推高能源成本，那么肯定也會(huì)對(duì)食品成本產(chǎn)生同樣的影響。