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China reported unexpectedly high consumer inflation of 6.5% in July -- its highest level in over three years -- magnifying concerns that the country will not be able to bail out a faltering global economy as it did after the 2008 financial crisis.
中國宣布7月份消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)的漲幅達(dá)到6.5%,這一漲幅之高出人意料,它創(chuàng)下了三年來的最高水平,使人更加擔(dān)心中國將無法像它在2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后那樣,向風(fēng)雨飄搖中的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)提供救援。
The July consumer price index topped the 6.4% year-on-year level reached in June. Still, many economists maintain that inflation has likely peaked and will come down gradually in the coming months, partly due to falling oil and commodity prices and a recent slight decline in Chinese pork prices.
7月份的消費者價格指數(shù)漲幅超過了6月份6.4%的水平。不過許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家依然認(rèn)為,中國的通脹率可能已經(jīng)見頂,未來幾個月將逐步下降,這一定程度上是因為石油和大宗商品價格不斷下跌,以及中國的豬肉價格最近出現(xiàn)了小幅下降。
However, just as global markets are buckling under concerns of a “double-dip” recession in the United States and sovereign debt woes in Europe, Tuesday's data show that inflation in China is still accelerating despite more than a year-and-a-half of monetary tightening.
不過,就在全球市場紛紛陷入對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)“二次衰退”以及歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)問題的擔(dān)憂之際,中國周二公布的CPI數(shù)據(jù)卻顯示,盡管政府實施了超過一年半的貨幣緊縮政策,但中國物價仍在加速上漲。
The rise in the key inflation gauge exceeded the median 6.3% gain forecast by 13 economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
中國7月份的CPI增幅高于預(yù)期,此前13位接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)測中值是上漲6.3%。
The unexpectedly high number means that China has no room to loosen policy in response to global market downturns, says Wei Yao, economist at Societe Generale. 'This is the kind of data that should trigger interest rate hikes, but given uncertainties in global market, they are likely to pause,' Ms. Yao says.
法國興業(yè)銀行(Societe Generale)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家姚偉說,7月份CPI增幅高于預(yù)期意味著,中國沒有為應(yīng)對全球市場低迷而放松政策的余地。她說,這是那種應(yīng)該引發(fā)利率上調(diào)的數(shù)據(jù),但鑒于全球市場的不確定性,中國政府預(yù)計在利率方面會按兵不動。
If inflation remains high and global growth falters, “that would be a very uncomfortable combination for China's policy makers,” Ms. Yao added.
姚偉還說,如果中國的通脹率依然高企而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長卻開始步履蹣跚,這兩種局面的疊加將令中國決策者非常不舒服。
Other economists echoed the concern. “The room for China to stimulate itself out of the problem will be smaller than 2008/2009,” wrote Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan, analysts at Credit Suisse.
Bloomberg News周一,北京一條購物街上,站在商戶櫥窗外的行人。其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也表達(dá)了同樣的擔(dān)憂。瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析師陳昌華(Vincent Chan)和Peggy Chan寫道:與2008/2009年時相比,中國通過刺激手段使自己擺脫困境的余地變小了。
Massive Chinese spending after the 2008 financial meltdown helped drag the global economy out the depths of its crisis. Chinese investment in high speed railways, highways and ports spurred demand for everything from iron ore from Australia and copper from Chile -- and boosted the bottom lines of Western multinationals selling equipment and technology to China.
2008年金融危機(jī)后,中國大規(guī)模的開支幫助全球經(jīng)濟(jì)走出了危機(jī)深淵。中國對高速鐵路、高速公路和港口建設(shè)的投資刺激了對從澳大利亞的鐵礦石到智利的銅等各類原材料的需求,并使在華銷售設(shè)備和技術(shù)的西方跨國公司收入大增。
The government has already conceded that it won't be able to meet its official inflation target of 4% this year.
中國政府已經(jīng)承認(rèn)無法達(dá)到今年4%的官方通脹目標(biāo)。
The biggest culprit of rising inflation was food prices, which rose 14.8% from a year earlier, up from 14.4% in June.
通脹升高的最大元兇是食品價格,同比增長14.8%,較6月增加14.4%。
Meanwhile, the producer price index, an indicator of upstream inflation pressures, rose 7.5% from a year earlier in July, quicker than June's 7.1% year-on-year rise and in-line with economists' expectations.
與此同時,衡量上游通脹壓力的生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)7月同比增長7.5%,高于6月7.1%的同比增幅,與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期一致。
The inflation data adds to concerns among Chinese policymakers about growth following the credit downgrading of the U.S. by Standard & Poor's. Despite years of effort to stimulate consumption in China, the economy is still highly dependent on exports to the U.S. and Europe.
通脹數(shù)據(jù)加劇了中國決策者在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)下調(diào)美國信用評級后對增長的擔(dān)憂。盡管中國多年來一直努力刺激內(nèi)需,但經(jīng)濟(jì)依然嚴(yán)重依賴于對美國和歐洲的出口。
Official Chinese media have poured vitriol at Washington, accusing it of financial mismanagement.
中國官方媒體紛紛對華盛頓提出尖銳批評,指責(zé)美國管理金融不力。
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