The revelation there are large stocks of copper in China isn’t new, but the bigger question is口why now?

　　對(duì)于中國(guó)有大量銅庫(kù)存的披露已不是什么新聞，但更大的疑惑是：為什么趕在現(xiàn)在披露呢？

　　Industry participants attending the International Study Group meeting in Lisbon recently said Dr. Bo Zhao, deputy director Copper Department, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told delegates that China’s copper inventories were 1.9 million metric tons at the end of last year.

　　出席了前不久在葡萄牙里斯本召開的國(guó)際銅業(yè)研究組織大會(huì)的業(yè)內(nèi)人士說(shuō)，中國(guó)有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)銅部副主任趙波博士告訴與會(huì)人員，中國(guó)去年年底的銅庫(kù)存為190萬(wàn)噸。

　　While this may sound significant given that analysts have long proclaimed the market to be in a supply-demand deficit, his comments are in line with estimates by traders, merchants and banks active in China’s copper sector, who say the country is awash with the metal.

　　考慮到分析人士長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直聲稱銅市處于供需不足的狀態(tài)，190萬(wàn)噸的銅庫(kù)存聽起來(lái)好像是個(gè)很大的數(shù)字，不過(guò)趙波的這番言論與那些活躍在中國(guó)銅業(yè)、說(shuō)中國(guó)有大量銅庫(kù)存的交易員、商家及銀行的估計(jì)是一致的。

　　Even more recently, subsidiaries of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. both separately estimated in filings made to the U.S. regulator for proposed exchange-traded funds that the physical copper market is at least 2.5 million tons, including inventories of end users and other market participants such as producers, traders and transit stocks. That doesn’t include exchange stocks, which are over 500,000 tons.

　　就在最近，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)旗下子公司在提交給美國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的交易所買賣基金申報(bào)文件中不約而同地估測(cè)，實(shí)物銅的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模至少在250萬(wàn)噸，其中包括終端用戶以及生產(chǎn)商、交易者和在途庫(kù)存等市場(chǎng)參與者的庫(kù)存量。這還并不包括交易所超過(guò)50萬(wàn)噸的銅庫(kù)存。

　　So what is actually far more interesting is the timing of Dr. Bo’s comments.

　　因此，更耐人尋味的實(shí)際上是趙波做出上述評(píng)論的時(shí)間。

　　China has for decades classified the amount of metal it holds in stockpiles as a strategic state secret. Copper is critical for China because the country is the world’s largest consumer of the metal and uses it in housing, construction and infrastructure to power its exponential growth. It doesn’t have decent mine supplies of its own, so has imported vast tonnages through the years, driving copper prices and keeping market bulls happy.

　　幾十年來(lái)，中國(guó)一直把銅的庫(kù)存量歸為戰(zhàn)略性國(guó)家機(jī)密。銅對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是世界上最大的銅消費(fèi)國(guó)，其住房、建設(shè)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等領(lǐng)域都要用到銅，并以此推動(dòng)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)本身并沒有大規(guī)模的銅供應(yīng)，所以多年來(lái)一直從海外大量進(jìn)口，這不僅推高了銅價(jià)，也讓看好銅市的人甚為歡喜。

　　That story is coming to an end as China’s growth engine has started to slowly but steadily creak, with the free and easy money that helped imports to continue having long dried-up. It’s been some time since copper producers could point to Chinese imports for evidence that the country was the savior of the market, riding to its rescue with still strong demand despite a global downturn.

　　然而隨著中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)引擎開始穩(wěn)步減速，關(guān)于銅的神話也即將終結(jié)，曾幫助中國(guó)繼續(xù)進(jìn)口銅的無(wú)償或低息貸款在很久以前就已用盡。銅生產(chǎn)商曾經(jīng)以中國(guó)銅進(jìn)口作為中國(guó)是銅市救世主的證據(jù)，認(rèn)為盡管世界經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，中國(guó)的銅需求卻仍然強(qiáng)勁，可惜這一切已是昨日黃花。

　　Copper prices have shaved more than 30% since peaking at an all-time high in February of $10,190/ton, partly as the world’s economies teeter on the verge of another downturn and partly because China hasn’t been buying.

　　銅價(jià)自今年2月創(chuàng)下每噸10,190美元的歷史最高水平以來(lái)，已累計(jì)下挫逾30%。從一定程度上說(shuō)，這既是因?yàn)槭澜绺鲊?guó)再次徘徊在衰退邊緣，同時(shí)也是因?yàn)檫@短時(shí)間里缺少了中國(guó)對(duì)銅的采購(gòu)。

　　In fact, the comments from China in recent weeks have been overwhelmingly bearish.

　　實(shí)際上，近幾周來(lái)自中國(guó)的言論一直極度悲觀。

　　The Bank of China warned this week that the global economy is on the verge of a double-dip recession and cautioned of a slowdown in their country's own growth as a result. Comments by one of the nation's four state-run commercial banks aren't taken lightly by the markets, with the metals sector in particular sitting up to take note.

　　中國(guó)銀行本周警告說(shuō)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)處于二次衰退的邊緣，并提醒說(shuō)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能因此放緩。中國(guó)四大國(guó)有商業(yè)銀行之一的話不會(huì)被市場(chǎng)輕視，金屬行業(yè)尤其對(duì)此倍加關(guān)注。

　　Its September trade surplus is smaller than expected; anecdotal reports suggest the country's informal lending sector is on the verge of a Chinese version of the euro-zone credit crisis; and the battle against inflation continues.

　　9月份中國(guó)貿(mào)易順差小于預(yù)期。有未經(jīng)證實(shí)的報(bào)道說(shuō)，中國(guó)的民間借貸處于類似歐元區(qū)信貸危機(jī)的邊緣。此外，通脹阻擊戰(zhàn)仍在繼續(xù)。

　　Then reports of Dr. Bo's comments started to filter out.

　　之后，各種有關(guān)趙波言論的報(bào)道開始紛紛出來(lái)。

　　More apparently bad news for copper, if its biggest consumer said the country had plenty of material.

　　對(duì)銅來(lái)說(shuō)更明顯的壞消息是，最大的銅消費(fèi)國(guó)說(shuō)自己有著大量的銅材。

　　There could be another explanation, however. The effect of the comments has been to dampen sentiment further and cap any upside that prices were starting to see this week. Investors have short memories, with the ETF filing estimates already long-forgotten. The market will probably never know exactly how much copper is sitting in Chinese warehouses, ports and even, if tales are to be believed, next to the pigs in farmers' fields.

　　不過(guò)，還可能有另外一種解釋。中國(guó)這樣說(shuō)是為了進(jìn)一步給投資熱情降溫，遏制銅價(jià)本周開始出現(xiàn)的上漲勢(shì)頭。投資者非常健忘，交易所買賣基金申報(bào)文件中的估測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)早被拋到腦后。市場(chǎng)可能永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法確切知道中國(guó)的倉(cāng)庫(kù)、港口，甚至是農(nóng)田里游走的豬旁邊（如果可以相信傳言的話）有多少銅。

　　And what exactly does China want, as a buyer of metal? Lower prices. If the country has been destocking, using up some of the metal it bought before prices soared, then it's going to need to buy more again soon. Import data earlier Thursday showed that China was savvy enough to do that last month, with refined copper imports reaching their highest for 16 months.

　　此外，中國(guó)作為金屬買家到底想要什么？更低的價(jià)格。如果中國(guó)一直在清空庫(kù)存，用去價(jià)格飆升之前買進(jìn)的一部分銅，那么它很快會(huì)需要買進(jìn)更多的銅。周四早些時(shí)候公布的進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)上個(gè)月明智地買進(jìn)了銅，精銅進(jìn)口量達(dá)到16個(gè)月來(lái)的最高水平。

　　Underestimating China is the last thing any copper market participant should ever do.

　　銅市場(chǎng)的任何參與者都不應(yīng)該低估中國(guó)。