The world’s economic leaders need to “rebalance” their thinking as well as their economies. Fiscal and monetary policies have dominated. That makes sense to a degree: decisions on deficits, debt and the eurozone this autumn may well determine whether the global economy slides deeper into danger, or begins the long climb back. But these policies are insufficient for sustained growth: we need action on the structural dynamics to generate jobs, higher productivity and a sustainable long-term rebalancing. What happens in China is as important as Europe, Japan, or the .

　　全球經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)袖們必須對自己的思維方式以及本國的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行“調(diào)整”。財(cái)政和貨幣政策向來居于主導(dǎo)地位。這有著一定的道理：今年秋季有關(guān)赤字、債務(wù)和歐元區(qū)的決定，很可能將會決定全球經(jīng)濟(jì)是進(jìn)一步滑向更危險(xiǎn)的境地，還是會開始漫長的復(fù)蘇。但這些政策仍不足以實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長：我們必須針對結(jié)構(gòu)性問題采取行動，以創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、提高生產(chǎn)力和實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的長期再平衡。中國目前的境況與歐洲、日本和美國一樣重要。

　　China’s growth has been a source of strength in the crisis, but its leaders know their growth model is unsustainable. For 30 years, China has enjoyed average annual growth of about 10 . In 1990, its income per capita was 30 lower than the average for ub-Saharan Africa – today, it is three times greater, over $4,000. By 2030, if China reaches a per-capita income of $16,000 – a reasonable possibility – the effect on the world economy would be equivalent to adding 15 of today’s South Koreas. It is hard to see how that expansion could be accommodated within an export and investment-led growth model, so China will need to rebalance through boosting domestic demand, lowering savings and increasing consumption.

　　危機(jī)期間，中國的增長一直是一個力量源泉，但中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人明白，本國的增長模式是不可持續(xù)的。過去30年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)平均每年增長10%左右。1990年，中國人均收入比撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲地區(qū)還低30%；而如今，其人均收入已增長3倍，超過了4000美元。到2030年，如果中國的人均收入能達(dá)到1.6萬美元（這很有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)），對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響將相當(dāng)于增加15個現(xiàn)在的韓國。我們很難想象，這樣的增長如何在由出口和投資拉動的增長模式下實(shí)現(xiàn)，因此，中國必須推動國內(nèi)需求、降低儲蓄水平并增加消費(fèi)，以期實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡。

　　Without fundamental structural changes, China is in danger of becoming caught in a “middle income trap” – exacerbating the world’s growth problems. In the short term, there is the risk of inflation driven by food prices. In the longer term, the drivers of China’s meteoric rise are waning: resources have largely shifted from agriculture to industry; as the labour force shrinks and the population ages, there are fewer workers to support retirees; productivity increases are declining, partly because the economy is exhausting gains from the transfer of basic production methods. Then there are other challenges, including serious environmental degradation; rising inequality; heavy use of energy and production of carbon; an under-developed service sector and an over-reliance on foreign markets.

　　如果不進(jìn)行根本的結(jié)構(gòu)性改變，中國有可能落入“中等收入陷阱”——從而加劇全球的增長困境。從短期看，有可能出現(xiàn)由食品價(jià)格拉動的通脹。從中長期來看，拉動中國疾速增長的因素正逐漸消退：資源已基本從農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到了工業(yè)；隨著勞動力的減少和人口的老齡化，供養(yǎng)退休者的工作人數(shù)不斷減少；生產(chǎn)率增速逐漸下降，部分原因在于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正逐漸耗盡基本生產(chǎn)方式轉(zhuǎn)移所帶來的收益。中國還面臨著其它挑戰(zhàn)，包括環(huán)境嚴(yán)重惡化、貧富差距拉大、過度使用能源及碳排放過量、服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展滯后、以及過度依賴外國市場等等。

　　China’s policymakers are well aware of “what” they need to do. Their 12th Five Year Plan points the way. Their challenge now is “how” to do it. Together, China’s Development Research Center of the State Council, its Ministry of Finance and the World Bank are working to turn “what” into “how” for a report later this year. Our starting point is a vision of China in 2030 as one of the high income countries, while also protecting its environment and natural resources, encouraging creativity and innovation, and sharing responsibilities in the global economy.

　　中國的決策者十分清楚自己必須做些“什么”。十二五計(jì)劃就指明了方向。眼下，他們的挑戰(zhàn)是“如何”去做。中國國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心(DRC)、財(cái)政部和世界銀行(World Bank)正攜手研究如何將“什么”轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)?ldquo;如何”，并將于今年晚些時候完成一項(xiàng)報(bào)告。我們研究的出發(fā)點(diǎn)是，中國將于2030年發(fā)展成為一個高收入國家，同時能夠保護(hù)其環(huán)境和自然資源，鼓勵發(fā)明創(chuàng)造，并承擔(dān)起在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的責(zé)任。

　　This weekend in Beijing, a high-level group of Chinese and international experts will be discussing possible reforms and how to implement them, step by step.

　　上周末，一群高級別的中國及國際專家匯聚北京，討論可行的改革及具體的實(shí)施步驟。

　　A critical question is how China can complete its transition to a market economy. A broad agenda needs to include redefining the role of the government and the rule of law, expanding the private sector, promoting competition, and deepening reforms in the land, labour and financial markets.

　　一個關(guān)鍵問題是，中國該如何完成向市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型。一個廣義議程應(yīng)該包括重新界定政府和法治的作用，擴(kuò)展私人部門，推動競爭，深化土地、勞動力和金融市場等方面的改革。

　　To unleash human potential, China will need to accelerate the pace of open innovation, so that competition encourages Chinese firms to invent products and processes – not only through China’s research and development, but also by participating in global networks.

　　要想釋放人的潛力，中國必須加快開放創(chuàng)新的速度，以期通過競爭鼓勵中國企業(yè)發(fā)明新產(chǎn)品和程序——不僅要靠中國的自主研發(fā)，還要參與到全球網(wǎng)絡(luò)中來。

　　China can “grow green” through a mix of market incentives, regulations, public and private investments, standards, and institutional development. China also aims to deliver equality of opportunity and social security to all its citizens. To do so, it needs to consider how best to deliver more and better quality public services, ensure effective and efficient social safety nets, and mobilise the private and public sectors to share responsibilities in financing, delivering, and monitoring social services.

　　中國可以通過將市場激勵措施、監(jiān)管、公共和私人投資、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和制度發(fā)展結(jié)合起來，實(shí)現(xiàn)“綠色增長”。中國還打算確保全體公民都享有均等的機(jī)會和社會保障。為此，它必須考慮如何最好地提供更多、更優(yōu)質(zhì)的公共服務(wù)，確保社會保障體系的經(jīng)濟(jì)有效，動員私人和公共部門承擔(dān)起為社會服務(wù)提供資金、執(zhí)行和監(jiān)督的責(zé)任。

　　China will weigh how to strengthen its fiscal system – bringing all public resources “on budget” and connecting resources to different levels of government expenditures. Yet without mobilising additional resources, including from state-owned enterprises, it will be difficult to advance reforms. We will also discuss how China can embrace its global role. China is already an important stakeholder in the international system – yet a cautious one. In the future its leaders can be a key partner for global solutions.

　　中國將考慮如何增強(qiáng)其財(cái)政體系——調(diào)動所有“預(yù)算內(nèi)”的公共資源，并將這些資源與各級政府支出連接起來。但如果不能從國有企業(yè)等領(lǐng)域調(diào)動額外的資源，中國將很難推進(jìn)改革。我們還將討論中國應(yīng)如何擔(dān)負(fù)起它的全球職責(zé)。現(xiàn)在，中國已經(jīng)是國際體系中一個重要的利益相關(guān)方——但它仍相當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎。今后，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人應(yīng)該會成為全球性解決方案中的一個關(guān)鍵參與者。

　　Even while coping with today’s economic turmoil world leaders need to design the engines of growth for tomorrow. That agenda will also build market confidence that can provide a boost today. China’s quest to find a sustainable growth model will contribute to other developing countries, regional and global growth, and the stability of the international economy. China is preparing to address its challenges. Developed countries would be wise to look ahead at their structural growth challenges, too.

　　即使在應(yīng)對眼前的經(jīng)濟(jì)動蕩時，全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也必須為未來的增長引擎布局。這一議程也將樹立市場信心，對目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢起到提振作用。中國尋找可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式的努力，將有利于其它發(fā)展中國家、地區(qū)及全球增長、乃至國際經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定。中國正準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對各項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)。發(fā)達(dá)國家最好也要為自己的結(jié)構(gòu)性增長挑戰(zhàn)未雨綢繆。