The growth model on which China has relied for the past three decades is running out of steam – but this does not mean that the end is nigh for the world’s second-biggest economy.

　　中國(guó)過(guò)去30年倚仗的增長(zhǎng)模式正在失去動(dòng)力，但這并不意味著這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)即將結(jié)束。

　　For the better part of a decade, leaders have talked about new engines: stronger domestic consumption, greater investment in services and a liberalised financial sector. The question is whether Beijing can finally unleash their potential.

　　近十年的大部分時(shí)間里，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們已經(jīng)就新的增長(zhǎng)引擎展開(kāi)了討論：提振內(nèi)需，加大服務(wù)業(yè)投資和放開(kāi)金融領(lǐng)域。問(wèn)題在于，中國(guó)政府最終能否釋放它們的潛力。

　　The global financial crisis delayed the transition, pushing the government to crank up investment in property and infrastructure – the crux of the old model – to keep growth aloft.

　　全球金融危機(jī)延遲了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型，促使中國(guó)政府加大對(duì)房地產(chǎn)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資（這是舊模式的核心）來(lái)保持高增長(zhǎng)。

　　With the economy now slowing again, there are signs that Beijing sees the danger of falling back once more on heavy investment – and that it is this time more serious about launching the structural reforms needed to push the country in a new direction.

　　隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)再次放緩，有跡象顯示，中國(guó)政府看到了再次依賴大舉投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此這次政府正更加認(rèn)真地考慮推出結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，這是推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向所必需的改革。

　　Loosening the official grip on the renminbi is crucial because a stronger currency would encourage businesses to focus less on exports and more on service industries from healthcare to accountancy. With its trademark gradualism, China has made strides in the past two years on this front. It has created an offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong; though still in its infancy, this has provided a valuable testing ground for a freely traded currency.

　　放松對(duì)人民幣匯率的控制至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)槿嗣駧派祵⒐膭?lì)企業(yè)把重點(diǎn)從出口轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)行業(yè)，從醫(yī)療保健到會(huì)計(jì)服務(wù)。過(guò)去兩年內(nèi)，中國(guó)已經(jīng)以其標(biāo)志性的漸進(jìn)方式，在這方面取得了長(zhǎng)足的進(jìn)步。中國(guó)在香港創(chuàng)建了離岸人民幣市場(chǎng)，雖然該市場(chǎng)仍處于初級(jí)階段，但它為人民幣自由貿(mào)易提供了寶貴的試驗(yàn)。

　　Another critical change is to let the market determine interest rates, which would raise the cost of capital, deterring wasteful investment and giving households a better return on their savings. Beijing has begun to experiment around the margins, allowing a wealth management industry to develop that in effect functions like a liberalised banking sector.  

　　另一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵改革是讓市場(chǎng)決定利率，這將提高資金成本，防止浪費(fèi)性投資，并讓家庭儲(chǔ)蓄獲得更高的回報(bào)。中國(guó)政府已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在小范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行試驗(yàn)，允許財(cái)富管理行業(yè)發(fā)展出這種功能，實(shí)際與銀行部門自由化的效果類似。

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　　Third, the social safety net needs to be fortified. Having smashed the “iron rice bowl” of the Maoist era, China is trying to fill the void by ramping up investment in health, education and welfare. Increased state funding for these will give people the confidence to spend more freely.

　　第三，中國(guó)政府需要加強(qiáng)社會(huì)保障體系。在打破毛澤東時(shí)代的“鐵飯碗”之后，中國(guó)正努力通過(guò)加大對(duì)醫(yī)療、教育和福利方面的投資來(lái)填補(bǔ)這方面的空白。政府在這些領(lǐng)域增加投資，將讓民眾有信心更隨心所欲地消費(fèi)

　　“There has been progress in the past two to three years, but it takes time to build up the social system,” says Wang Tao, an economist with UBS.

　　瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王濤表示：“中國(guó)在過(guò)去兩三年內(nèi)取得了進(jìn)步，但構(gòu)建社保體系需要時(shí)間。”

　　From the exchange rate to interest rates and savings rates, reformers in Beijing are slowly moving in the right direction. Their challenge is to unlock China’s new growth model before the old one expires.

　　從匯率到利率和儲(chǔ)蓄率，中國(guó)政府的改革者正緩慢地朝著正確的方向前進(jìn)。他們面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是，要在舊模式失效之前開(kāi)啟中國(guó)新的增長(zhǎng)模式。